Analysis Of Factors Affecting The Spread Of Credit Debt Issuance

In recent years,China's financial industry has developed rapidly,and direct financing has become one of the increasingly important financing methods for enterprises.In particular,the development of the credit bond market has grown in size,and the variety of issuance has become increasingly abundant.The issuance of bonds has also become a major financing tool and means for enterprises.The rating business in China's market has been developed along with the rise of the bond market.Although some achievements have been made in the development,there are also some problems.As a participant in the bond market,credit rating agencies are responsible for investors.Provide a significant responsibility for the true and effective information of the bond,so that investors can more accurately grasp the status of risks and benefits,and provide an effective reference for investors' investment decisions.This makes the rating of China's rating agencies occupy an increasingly important position in the bond market.However,at present,there are still many problems in China's bond market that have not been resolved.In particular,in recent years,the number of default bonds has fluctuated.Since the first bond default in 2014,a total of 318 bonds have been defaulted in the past five years,especially in 2018.There were 159 bonds that defaulted.In particular,among all breach of contract data,AAA bond default ratio was 2.73%,AA+ bond default ratio was 21.84%,AA bond default ratio was 49.83%,etc.,which made investors' credit rating on the market.There was a doubt that led to a lack of credibility in the credit rating.Therefore,this paper empirically analyzes the impact of China's current credit rating on the bond issuance market,aiming to explore the true effectiveness of the rating industry.This paper analyzes the status quo and problems of China's credit rating and default bonds by introducing the existing research results at home and abroad,and selects the publicly issued bond data from 2014 to 2018 for empirical research through random forest regression.The model derives the importance scores and rankings of each explanatory variable,and conducts a partial dependence analysis onthe variables with the highest importance ranking.It is found that the credit rating does have an impact on the credit spread,that is,whether it is the subject rating or the debt rating.The higher the rating,the smaller the spread and the lower the risk of default;and in the empirical analysis,the rating of each rating agency is also different.Finally,based on the empirical results,the recommendations for the efficient development of the rating industry are proposed.