| China'ssocialist market economic system has undergone a difficult and tortuous course from its establishment,growth and improvement within 40 years of reforming and opening.Under the deepening economic globalization,China has shared a wider stage to the world with more financial structure adjustments,and acted as a rising stock marketer,which promotes the development of the real economy.The main body of this paper is the Anhui regional sector stock price.On the one hand,the stock price volatilityis inextricably linked with various macroeconomic variables.Through the effect of investment,credit,wealth and liquidity,stock price volatility can affect the total of investment,consumption,credit scale and so no,which has further affect the realization of the ultimate goal of monetary policy.On the other hand,as an asset,the stock's price change reflects the efficiency of resource allocation in national economy,which has a certain guiding role in resource allocation and policy-making in China.In a word,Anhui regional plate stock price has ups and downs in its development in this period.We have experienced the joy of the bull market and the anxiety and despair of the bottom.Although we have made some achievements,we will also face a tortuous development path because there is still a lack of support from a mature system.The causes of stock price fluctuation of listed companies are complex,which may be influenced by macro-market and other fundamentals,by the investment and operation of micro-main bodies,by the impact of foreign hot money,or by people's expectations.Due to the complexity and practical significance of this problem,many scholars at home and abroad have brought to the study that whether monetary policy will impact the stock market through some channels,and how the relevant government departments and other main bodies better formulate policies and supporting measures to rationally guide the sound operation of the stock market so as to enhance the efficiency and sustainability of the operation of our financial system.In view of the problems described,the paper will focus on the impact of the changes in the representative indicators of monetary policy on the stock market,i.e.stock prices,and conduct an empirical study on the impact of more than 100 listed companies in Anhui Province.As such,the paper ponders some problems in those whole process.This paper firstly describes the background and significance of this study,pointing out that the stock market in China has been developing rapidly and has obvious effect on the real economy,but there are still some problems.In addition,China's monetary policy plays an important role and has a connection with the stock price.Besides,this paper introduces the situation of some listed companies in Anhui Province,the current financial environment and the policy orientation of the People's Bank of China,which has both theoretical and practical significance.Following is the literature review,which introduces the existing research results.Finally,the paper describes some specific methods and presents the innovation and improvement of this paper.Because of the connection between stock price and various economic macroscopic variables,this paper studies the relationship between monetary policy and stock price fluctuation through investment effect,consumption effect,wealth effect and demand effect in the second chapter theory,and further analyzes the money supply of three indexes of monetary policy based on the research results.The impact of loan interest rates and interbank lending rates on stock price fluctuations.Then,the empirical part is based on the monthly data of all 103 listed companies in Anhui Province from September 2007 to June 2018,and through the establishment of vector error repair model(VECM),the broad money supply,the one-year loan interest rate and the The influence of Shanghai interbank interest rate on the regional plate index of Anhui Province shows that the three factors have no great influence on the fluctuation of stock price in Anhui regional plate.After that,the stock price fluctuation of Anhui regional plate is subdivided into two stages,and through impulse response analysis and variance decomposition,it is concluded that the fluctuation of Anhui plate stock price will have a significant impact on itself in two stages,and the change of one-year loan interest rate in the rising stage will have an impact on the stock price of Anhui plate.In the rising stage,the one-year loan interest rate and the Shanghai interbank practice rate are more important to the contribution rate of Anhui Regional Plate index,and the contribution rate of Anhui Regional Plate index itself is larger in the decline stage.Afterwards,this paper further empirically studies the relationship between monetary policy and the interaction between the four representative Anhui industry plate Indices(brewing,software,automobiles,machinery).The establishment of Anhui industry Plate index is based on the monthly comparison of the closing prices of various enterprises in Anhui Province in various industries and the product of the weight of their total assets.The results show that the fluctuation of four industry indices is closely related to itself,and monetary policy has a significant influence on the index of machinery industry,which has little influence on the index of brewing industry and software service industry,and has a complicated influence on the index change of automobile industry,and the Shanghai interbank Practice rate has a significant negative impact on the automobile industry index,The money supply and lending rates have less impact on the auto industry index,which is closely related to the differences between industries.Finally,based on the synthesizes of theoretical research,empirical results and practical situation,some policy suggestions are put forward as follows.First,The government should play a leading role and correct some mistakes timely and moderately when the market needs.Second,relevant departments should have certain foresight and pertinence before making monetary policy.And they need to reasonably consider the impact of their actions on the future of the stock market.In the last section of this chapter,the paper puts forward detailed policy suggestions for Anhui regional plate through full study,understanding and analysis.In a word,We need promote the sound development of the stock market and listed companies in Anhui.In this way,we can promote the development of local characteristic industries and achieve the revitalization of the real economy. |
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