Research On Cash Flow Risk Of Pharmaceutical Enterprises Based On CFaR Model

As the “blood” required for various business activities,cash flow plays a decisive role in the sustainable operation of enterprises,and is increasingly concerned by corporate leaders and financial departments.As pharmaceutical companies are highinvestment-invested enterprises,the demand for funds is large,and China's pharmaceutical companies are still in the development stage,and there is a certain degree of risk in the cash flow of pharmaceutical companies.Firstly,based on the literature research on cash flow risk,the paper firstly shows the development status of pharmaceutical enterprises in China and the cash flow risk characteristics of pharmaceutical enterprises.It is concluded that pharmaceutical companies face relatively fixed financing channels,slow recovery of enterprise accounts receivable,and research and development investment of original research drugs.Less risk factors.By introducing factors affecting cash flow,it reflects the cash flow risks faced by pharmaceutical companies and selects the risk factors that affect the cash flow of pharmaceutical companies.Secondly,taking the pharmaceutical companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen as the research object,considering the distribution characteristics of the cash flow risk factors of enterprises,the K-S test and the ?^2 test are used to fit the characteristics of the cash flow risk factors of pharmaceutical enterprises.It is concluded that the enterprise cash flow risk factor obeys Gamma distribution and Logistic distribution,and has certain characteristics of skewness and kurtosis.On this basis,the cash flow risk model is constructed by panel data to measure the cash flow risk of Chinese pharmaceutical companies,and the cash flow risk value CFaR of pharmaceutical companies and their sub-enterprises is calculated according to Monte Carlo simulation method.It is concluded that the high cash flow liquidity of pharmaceutical enterprises can improve the company's operating status,and the bank's “reluctance to lend” behavior will increase the financing cost,thus hindering pharmaceutical companies from holding high liquidity cash,and pharmaceutical companies over-financing to expand the production scale of enterprises.The risk of cash flow,the CFaR value of chemical pharmaceutical companies are higher than the average level of pharmaceutical companies,and the CFaR value of biological products enterprises is slightly lower than the average level of pharmaceutical companies.Finally,according to the research theory,development status and empirical analysis results,aiming at the cash flow risk influencing factors faced by pharmaceutical companies,it is proposed to increase the financing channels of enterprises to alleviate the financing difficulties faced by enterprises,and make scientific and reasonable project decisions to improve the efficiency of fund use and improve.The account receivable turnover rate accelerates the flow of funds,strengthens the research and development of pharmaceutical companies' original research drugs to improve product profitability,and improves the cash flow monitoring mechanism and other management proposals that affect the cash flow of pharmaceutical companies.The paper's research on cash flow risk is only for pharmaceutical companies listed in China,and does not consider the cash flow risk characteristics and measurement methods of non-listed pharmaceutical companies.And the risk of corporate cash flow caused by the irrational behavior of the management and financial departments of the company is not involved,which is the direction of further research.