Research On The Influence Of Strategic Differences On The Quality Of Analysts' Earnings Forecast

Compared with the mature capital markets of western countries,although China's capital market started late,the degree of development still has a big gap with Western countries,but it has achieved rapid development and progress in recent years.At the same time,the securities analyst industry is an important industry sector in China's capital market.The emergence of this industry has also enabled securities analysts to gradually serve as professional technicians for professional investors in China.Most of the investors in China's capital market are engaged in securities-independent work,and they do not have the ability to interpret and analyze various information in the securities market.Therefore,their investment decisions require relevant majors in the field.The guidance of the people,and the analyst as the link between the capital market and the investor,the quality of the earnings forecast will have a very important impact on the investor's investment decisions and even the overall operation of China's capital market.Therefore,the quality of securities analysts' earnings forecasts has been one of the most important topics in capital markets and academia in recent years.As an important support to influence the overall development direction of a company,corporate strategy may also affect the analyst's earnings forecast behavior to a large extent.In recent years,under the call of the government's "Public entrepreneurship and innovation",many companies have chosen to adopt a development strategy that deviates from the overall industry in order to survive and develop and maintain their market superiority.So will the strategic difference between the company and the industry as a whole affect the quality of analysts',earnings forecasts?Therefore,this thesis focuses on the correlation between strategic differences and the quality of analyst earnings forecasts.Based on theoretical support such as information asymmetry theory,strategic management theory and enterprise life cycle theory,this thesis draws on the existing research results and selects the data of A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets from 2012 to 2017 as samples to pass the empirical method.Through the research,it is found that the greater the difference in corporate strategy,the lower the accuracy of analysts',earnings forecast,and the greater the difference between analysts' forecasts.At the same time,corporate earnings volatility significantly enhances the difference between strategic differences and analysts,earnings forecasts.After further distinguishing the different stages of the enterprise life cycle,it is found that the relationship between strategic differences and analysts'earnings prediction quality is significant in the growth and maturity periods,but not significant in the recession period.The structure of this thesis is organized as follows:The first chapter is the introduction.This part mainly expounds the research background and research significance of this thesis.On this basis,it combs the existing domestic and foreign literatures,introduces the research ideas and research methods,and finally clarifies the innovation and characteristics of this thesis.The second chapter is the definition of concept and the theoretical basis.Firstly,the related concepts are systematically described,and the theoretical basis of the influence of strategic differences on the quality of analysts,earnings forecasts is explained.The third chapter is the theoretical analysis and research hypothesis.The theoretical basis of tihis thesis includes information asymmetry theory,strategic management theory and life cycle theory.With reference to the research of existing scholars,this thesis proposes the research hypothesis of the relationship between strategic differences and analysts',earnings prediction quality.The fourth chapter is the empirical test.The research design section mainly includes sample selection and variable definition.Then carry out empirical analysis,including:descriptive statistics,correlation analysis and regression analysis of the main variables,and correspondingly explain the empirical results.Finally,the robustness test,this part mainly through the variable substitution method to verify the previous empirical results.The fifth chapter is the research conclusions and policy recommendations.On the basis of the previous empirical analysis,this thesis summarizes and summarizes the main points of this thesis,further proposes relevant policy recommendations,and points out the limitations of this study.On the basis of the current academic achievements,the major contributions of this thesis are listed below:(1)Less scholars explore the impact of analysts' earnings forecast quality based on the perspective of corporate strategy differences.This thesis studies the strategic differences on the quality of analysts',earnings forecasts.The impact path has made some contributions to the existing literature;(2)This thesis further examines the impact of different earnings volatility and enterprise life cycle on the relationship between strategic differences and analysts' earnings prediction quality,and expanded the research scope of existing literature.