Study On Risk Assessment Index System Of Major Misreporting Of Agricultural Listed Companies

Agricultural enterprises are an important part of agricultural industry which is related to our national economy and people’s livelihood.With the development of securities market,some agricultural enterprises seek further development through listing,but at the same time,new problems arise.From the early Lan Tian shares incident,the Greenland incident to the recent scallop incident happened in Zoneco Group,it can be seen that the financial fraud of agricultural listed companies using the particularity of their production and operation disturbs the order of the securities market and increases the risk of CPA auditing such listed companies.In the stage of modern risk-oriented audit,identifying and evaluating the risk of major misstatement has become the first step to solve the above problems,so as to control the audit risk of agricultural listed companies,ensure the authenticity and effectiveness of their financial information,and maintain the normal order of the market.Therefore,based on the analysis of financial and non-financial data of agricultural listed companies in China,this paper intends to establish an index system that can qualitatively and quantitatively evaluate their major misstatement risk,so as to achieve the purpose of controlling audit risk and maintaining market order.In order to establish an index system that can effectively evaluate the risk of major misstatement of agricultural listed companies in China: Firstly,this paper draws on the idea of Balanced Scorecard in the construction of performance evaluation system and formulates the principle of establishing the index system in this paper.Then,after analyzing the operational risks of agricultural listed companies and the requirements of auditing standards for evaluating the major misstatement risks of the auditees,this paper constructs a binary logistic regression model,and screens out the indicators for evaluating the major misstatement risks of agricultural listed companies and forms a set of indicators by substituting the empirical data of agricultural listed companies in China from 2006 to 2017.Thereafter,this paper uses principal component analysis to extract and group the information contained in the index set,establishes a basic index system with hierarchical and causal relationship for qualitative assessment of major misstatement risk,and constructs a mathematical model for quantitative assessment of risk by combining the basic index system with Logistic model and its regression results.Finally,after the combination of the basic index system and mathematical model has passed the test of the empirical data of agricultural listed companies in China,this paper achieves the goal of constructing the risk assessment index system of major misstatement of agricultural listed companies in China,which including the four-level basic index system and mathematical evaluation model.Through the research,the index system of risk assessment of major misstatement of agricultural listed companies established in this paper,under the 40.00% warning line,the overall effective rate of risk assessment of major misstatement of agricultural listed companies in China reached 96.32%.Among the 10 first-level indicators,the macroeconomic environment of agricultural enterprises,the profitability and growth status of agricultural enterprises,and the structure of assets and liabilities are the important dimensions for assessing the occurrence of major misstatement risks of agricultural enterprises.Among the 35 secondary indicators,there are seven non-financial indicators and six financial indicators can significantly warn the occurrence of major misstatement risk of agricultural listed companies in China,such as the actual income tax rate of enterprises,the economic development status of the areas where enterprises are established,the degree of ownership concentration,the degree of equity checks and balances,the combination of two positions of chairman and general manager,the ratio of inventory impairment preparation,the defect of internal control and the asset-liability ratio,etc.