A Study On The Spillover Effect Of The Withdrawal Of Quantitative Easing Monetary Policy In The United States

The acceleration of the fed's interest rate rise and retrenchment has a great impact on China,which has close ties with the us in terms of trade and capital.But China's economic power is not what it used to be,and it cannot allow the United States to use monetary policy to steal Chinese wealth.It is of great significance for China to explore the spillover effect of China's withdrawal from the quantitative easing monetary policy of the United States to formulate economic countermeasures and curb the hegemonic behavior of the federal reserve monetary policy with a win-win cooperation mentality.Firstly,based on the current quantitative easing monetary policy implemented by the United States,this paper establishes a simple monetary policy spillover model and explores the transmission mechanism of monetary policies between countries.Then,by sorting out and comparing the economic situation of China and the United States under the current economic environment,we can roughly understand the spillover effect of China on the monetary policy of the United States.Finally,the short-term DSGE model and SVAR model of the two countries were established to quantitatively analyze the spillover effect of China on the withdrawal of quantitative easing monetary policy of the United States from two aspects of theoretical derivation and data verification.Current situation analysis shows that China's current economic policy has a certain spillover effect on the withdrawal of quantitative easing monetary policy of the United States.It is concluded from the model analysis that,in the process of the withdrawal of quantitative easing monetary policy in the United States,changes in Chinese market interest rate and changes in Chinese output will have a blocking effect on the implementation of American monetary policy,among which,changes in Chinese market interest rate will have a more obvious spillover effect on the withdrawal of quantitative easing monetary policy in the United States.The data analysis verified the conclusion of the model analysis,and further found that the change of China's market interest rate in the short term will have a greater blocking effect on the withdrawal of quantitative easing in the United States,China's GDP will have a more obvious negative effect in the long term;The change of spot exchange rate between RMB and us dollar will have a moredrastic and continuous negative impact on the implementation of us price monetary policy,and have a negative impact on us quantitative monetary policy,but the impact is small.The scale of China's foreign exchange reserves will have a certain short-term impact on the quantitative monetary policy of the United States in the short term,but it will not have a large impact in the long term,and it will have a small impact on the price monetary policy of the United States,but the sustainability is strong.