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Assessment Of Credit Risk Of Agricultural SME In Supply Chain Finance

Posted on:2020-12-25Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:W H SuFull Text:PDF
GTID:2439330575981370Subject:Logistics management
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
The report of the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed to implement the strategy of rural revitalization and accelerate the modernization of agriculture and rural areas.The modernization of agriculture is related to the overall situation of building a well-off society and building a socialist modernization powerful country.The transformation of China's traditional agriculture into modern agriculture is not a one-step process.It is necessary to gradually build agriculture on the basis of modern science,rely on modern science and technology and modern industry to equip agriculture,and rely on modern economic science to manage agriculture.As an important force to promote agricultural development,agricultural small and medium-sized enterprises still have huge development space,and the process of agricultural modernization requires huge financial support.Agricultural small and medium-sized enterprises financing mainly includes two ways.They are internal financing and external financing.It is difficult for agricultural SMEs that rely entirely on their own funds to become bigger and stronger.In terms of equity financing,most agricultural SMEs have been subject to the “Company Law”: the company's total share capital is not less than RMB 50 million;the opening time is more than three years;the last three years of continuous profit and other restrictions.The door of financing to bond market has not been opened to agricultural small and medium-sized enterprises.The data show that the proportion of private equity loans of small and medium-sized enterprises in China is only 0.66%,and the proportion of agricultural small and medium enterprises is lower.At present,indirect financing is still an important channel for financing small and medium-sized enterprises.Supply chain finance can help solve the problem of financing difficulties for agricultural small and medium-sized enterprises.However,because agricultural small and medium-sized enterprises have both the agricultural and SMEs Characteristics such as long-term agricultural production cycle,the impact of natural factors,the under-regulation of SME management,and the imperfect regulatory system.When commercial banks are crediting them,they need to consider not only the core corporate credit and supply chain transactions,but also their own financial information.According to the traditional financing method,the evaluation index system listed in the “Guidelines for the Credit Rating Management of the People's Bank of China” referenced by commercial banks,combined with the status quo of China's agricultural supply chain finance,from the aspects of management of agricultural small and medium-sized enterprises and agricultural core enterprises and the overall situation of the supply chain,this paper build an indicator system to evaluate the credit status of agricultural SMEs in the supply chain.Based on the construction of the indicator system,this paper builds a BP neural network model based on the public financial data of agricultural small and mediumsized enterprises listed on the New OTC Market,and of companies listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and the stock price fluctuations in the first half of 2018.The accuracy of the model simulation results is as high as 91.67%,which provides a reference for commercial banks to loan to agricultural enterprises in the supply chain.Finally,this paper proposes ways to reduce the financial credit risk of agricultural supply chain from three aspects: commercial banks,agricultural small and medium enterprises and agricultural core enterprises: commercial banks should make full use of the Internet and information technology,and actively participate in the agricultural supply chain by virtue of their own financial advantages,continue to improve the risk assessment method and improve the accuracy of credit risk prediction.Agricultural SMEs should standardize the management system,especially its financial management system,the optimization of financial management can not only provide basis for its daily operation and management decision-making,it can also reduce costs in the process of applying for credit.In the process of capital exchange with commercial banks and supply chain core enterprises,agricultural SMEs should pay attention to integrity and establish long-term and stable cooperative relationships.Agricultural core enterprises should assume more supply chain responsibilities,taking into account shortterm interests and Long-term interests.
Keywords/Search Tags:Agricultural SME, Supply chain finance, Credit risk, BP neural network
PDF Full Text Request
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