Forecast Of Touristpopulation Based On ARIMA And BP Neural Network Model

Tourism is a people are not unfamiliar words,its vitality in our lives show incisively and incisively,now people's material living standards are constantly improving,people's demand for tourism is gradually increasing.Our country belongs to the big market of tourism development,tourism is an important industry of national economic development.The full development of tourism will help to improve the quality of life of the people and meet their spiritual and material needs.It can effectively promote the rapid development of the national economy.Among the 10 largest cities in the global tourism market in 2017,three cities in China,Beijing,Shanghai and Shenzhen,all participated,and accounted for 13.84 %of the 72 tourist cities 'contribution to tourism.Beijing-shanghai deep is the three big cities that our country develops well.While cheering for them to join the ranks of the largest cities in the National tourism market,continuing to develop better is the key.Therefore,it is very important to predict the number of tourists in Beijing-Shanghai and Shenzhen.The number of tourists in the three cities shows different growth trends.In order to correctly predict the number of tourists,this paper uses the relevant statistical data of the Beijing-Shanghai and Shenzhen statistical yearbooks to select the actual data of the number of tourists from Beijing to Shanghai from 2000-2014 as training data.Taking the actual data from 2015 to 2017 as the test data,the BP neural network model and ARIMA model are constructed,and the number of tourists in Beijing-Shanghai and Shenzhen are predicted respectively.Due to the occurrence of SARS in 2003,the number of tourists in three cities showed an "irregular" distribution in 2003.This paper uses interpolation to replace the tourism data in 2003 with interpolation to make simulation predictions.Through the verification of the forecast results,it was found that because the number of tourists to Shanghai suddenly increased in 2010 with a larger increase rate than in the past,it affected the simulation of the BP network.When establishing the ARIMA model,the original tourist population sequence was differentiated.After testing the ARIMA(1,2,2)models established by the tourists from Shanghai and Shanghai,it was concluded that the ARIMA model is more suitable for the Shanghai tourist population.Simulationprediction.The ARIMA(1,1,2)model was established for the number of visitors to Shenzhen.The growth of the number of tourists in Shenzhen is relatively stable.This steady growth data is almost unchanged for the predictions of the two models.From the perspective of the difference in the forecast results,there are differences in the growth trend of the number of tourists from the two models.Finally,the two models established predict the number of tourists in Beijing-Shanghai depth from 2018 to 2022.The results are in turn increasing,which means that the Beijing-Shanghai depth tourism industry is on the rise,and the Shenzhen tourism population growth rate is relatively large.We should continue to encourage Shenzhen to develop tourism while paying attention to the tourism development in Beijing and Shanghai,and make common progress to promote the better and faster development of China's tourism industry.