An Empirical Analysis Of The Impact Of RMB Onshore Spot Exchange Rate On Offshore Forward Exchange Rate

The pace of economic globalization has been somewhat tortuous and somewhat repeated today.However,today's world development is subject to economic globalization and the benefits of trade globalization are abundant.In particular,since the reform and opening up,China has followed the trend of the world and actively integrated into the process of globalization,and has achieved remarkable results in the world's major economies.When China's connection with the world is getting closer,it also needs the renminbi.More international.Although the financial crisis has passed for decades,the importance of a strong currency in all countries is always new.In the deep-seated world economy,in the process of economic exchanges with other countries,the business of RMB settlement has become more and more dense.However,how to make the renminbi also become a strong currency has become a currency that is generally trusted in the economic exchanges between countries.It is a question worthy of our deep reflection and solution.This paper is also based on the above background,specifically to develop a small proposition to study-the empirical study of the RMB spot exchange rate and forward exchange rate.The full text is divided into the following aspects,which are discussed:The first part,the research background,purpose and meaning of the thesis,the content of the research and the structure of the paper(framework),the relevant theoretical status of the proposition at home and abroad.The second part introduces the terms and concepts,the RMB onshore foreign exchange market and the offshore foreign exchange market,the 8.11 exchange rate reform,the RMB spot exchange rate and the forward exchange rate.In the third part,the VAR model is applied to analyze the spot exchange rate and forward exchange rate of RMB using the unit root test,cointegration test,Granger causality test,impulse response and variance decomposition.found in study:The fourth part,based on the introduction and research results of the above content,carries on further analysis and argumentation,and puts forward a little policy advice on the actual work.Because the impact of the 8.11 exchange rate reform on the RMB exchange rate is huge,many people with lofty ideals have already done more analysis on related topics.For the sake of practical significance,the time period of this study is focused on the 8.11 exchange rate reform.Therefore,one of the highlights of this article is that the data is very new and intercepted at the time of writing.It can reflect the relationship between the spot exchange rate of the RMB and the forward exchange rate in a timely manner.