An Impact Study Of The Cross-border E-commerce Development Level On China’s Import Trade

In 2018,there are two major events in the history of China’s international trade that are worthy of attention : first,China successfully hosted the first international import fair import;second,China’ s cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot area has reached 35.Under the impetus of these two major events,despite the intensified trade friction between China and the United States,China’s total import and export trade will reach a new high in 2019,indicating that China’s foreign trade will enter a new era,and expanding imports has become an important strategy for China’s next stage of foreign trade.This thesis takes these two major events as the background,and uses cross-border e-commerce as a new format and new kinetic energy for international trade as a research focus,trying to analyze the development level of cross-border e-commerce in China.On the basis of the status quo of import trade development,the paper further analyze the mechanism and role of cross-border e-commerce on the development of China’s import trade,so as to realize the healthy development of cross-border e-commerce and import trade in China.In view of the above analysis,this paper based on the influence of cross-border e-commerce on China’s import trade,is the theoretical basis of the research on the theory of transaction cost,the theory of competitive advantage and the theory of industrial value chain.This paper uses quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis to analyze the internal relationship between the development level of cross-border e-commerce and the development of import trade,and to clarify the impact of cross-border e-commerce development level on China’s import trade.This paper takes the cross-border e-commerce transaction volume,the number of websites,the number of Internet users and the number of cross-border express shipments as the basic indicators from 2012 to 2017,and obtains the comprehensive index of cross-border e-commerce development level through factor analysis,and utilizes the comprehensive development level of cross-border e-commerce.The index and the two indexes of China’s import trade are used for time series analysis.The VAR model is constructed to analyze the long-term relationship between the development level of cross-border e-commerce and the existence of import trade.At the same time,foreign direct investment is used as an external variable to analyze the development level of cross-border e-commerce.The contribution to the impact of China’s import trade has found that the level of cross-border e-commerce development has a greater impact onChina’s import trade,and the level of cross-border e-commerce development is more positive for China’s import trade.Finally,based on the results of qualitative and quantitative analysis,the paper proposes the development level of cross-border e-commerce to the development of China’s import trade,from reducing the cost of import trade transactions,enhancing the competitive advantage of cross-border e-commerce imports,to strengthening the integration of cross-border e-commerce imports.The three aspects of the commodity industry value chain analyze the enlightenment of China’s cross-border e-commerce development level on China’s import trade.This paper emphasizes the opportunity of “Entering the Expo” to create a positive cycle of trust consumption and establish strategic partnerships with brand suppliers to achieve a win-win situation.The findings of this paper include:(1)There is a long-term and stable relationship between the development level of cross-border e-commerce and import trade.In the long run,there is a positive correlation between import trade and the development level of cross-border e-commerce,and the development level of cross-border e-commerce has a positive pulling effect on import trade.(2)There is a causal relationship between the development level of cross-border e-commerce and import trade.And the causality is significant.There is a two-way causality between the development level of cross-border ecommerce and import trade,that is,import trade is the introduction of import trade.The reason for the change of the development level of cross-border e-commerce is also the reason of the change of import trade.(3)There is a short-term relationship between the development level of cross-border e-commerce and import trade.In the short term,the import trade is sensitive to the change of the development level of cross-border e-commerce,and the development level of cross-border e-commerce has a great impact on the import trade.