Research On The Impact Of RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuation On Sino-US Trade Balance

The world’s largest economies are the United States and China.However,over the years,due to the comprehensive influence of various factors such as the political system,economic structure,and development stage,the trade between the two countries has been seriously unbalanced.There is instability in trade between China and the United States,which is extremely unfavorable for bilateral development.Moreover,in the world,especially in the United States,a large number of key members of the political and academic circles believe that the main or core reason for the trade balance between the two countries is the RMB exchange rate,and the call for the appreciation of the RMB has been high.The Chinese government has also adjusted its strategy in a timely manner,reviewing the situation and expecting to improve people’s expectations of the changes in the RMB exchange rate and its impact on trade through the practice of trade policies.It is truly mutually beneficial in terms of model,strengthening self-hematopoietic function and getting rid of export trade.Over-reliance on a large country.By arranging the research results of exchange rate changes,trade differences,trade structure and other issues,this paper analyzes the historical evolution of trade between the two countries,the trade between the two countries and the changes in China’s currency exchange rate,based on various relevant theories of exchange rate changes and trade relations.The RMB exchange rate changes affecting the trade between the two countries were analyzed,and the 162 monthly data of 22 categories of Sino-US trade in the customs statistics collected in July 2005 from December 2018 were selected as research samples,and the exchange rate based on the exchange rate was established.The Sino-US trade balance model of national income,foreign national income and other factors analyzes the relationship between independent variables and dependent variables through linear regression.The empirical results show that: The RMB exchange rate is not the core determinant of the huge difference in Sino-US trade.The surplus of the RMB after the appreciation of the RMB continues to expand depends on the characteristics of the supply-demand relationship between the two countries.From the perspective of the types of export commodities,the degree of sensitivity of the net export value of different categories of commodities to the RMB exchange rate is quite different.Low value-added processed products in resource-intensive goods and labor-intensive goods are more sensitive to changes in the RMB exchange rate,and most technology-intensive products are not sensitive to changes in the RMB exchange rate.Finally,based on the theoretical and empirical analysis results of this paper,combined with the actual situation,the author puts forward the proposal to optimize the exchange rate of Sino-US trade.The main innovation of this paper is to study the development of the RMB exchange rate and the trade balance between China and the United States,and combine the trade data of 22 categories of products under HS classification for 162 months.The impact of the difference has discussed in more detail the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on China’s merchandise export structure,reflecting the elastic characteristics of different commodity types on exchange rate changes,and the research objects are more in-depth.The shortcoming is that due to the limitation of model design,the number of factors to be considered is limited,and limited to the data selection interval.The research results have certain limitations on judging the relationship between Sino-US trade balance and exchange rate fluctuation in a certain period.