Research On Capital Buffer Periodicity Of Commercial Banks And Its Impact On Credit Behavior

After the 2008 financial crisis,the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision introduced a macro-prudential regulatory framework aimed at improvi ng capital regulatory policies and easing the procyclicality of the original capital regulatory framework.Therefore,a counter-cyclical capital supervision system was constructed and regulatory requirements for capital buffers were proposed.In 2013,China began to implement the"Commercial Bank Capital Management Measures(Trial)”policy,strengthened the supervision of bank capital,strictly controlled the capital buffer level of banks,and ensured the effectiveness of capital supervision.The periodicity of the capital buffer refers to the impact of the capital buffer adjustment on the economic cycle by acting on bank credit.In recent years,domestic research on capital regulation has focused on the cyclical behavior of capital buffers,the construction of capital buffer models,and the effectiveness of capital regulation.However,there is little research on the impact mechanism of capital buffer on credit behavior.Since capital buffering affects the volatility of the economic cycle by restricting the credit of banks,it is necessary to study the mechanism of capital buffers affecting credit behavior.In view of this,this paper first analyzes the cause of capital buffer cis-cycle based on the theory of information asymmetry and the procyclicality of capital supervision framework,and explores the capital of China in combination with the status quo of China's financial system,the characteristics of China's banking industry and the herd effect.The causes of buffer reverse periodicity;secondly,the herd effect,financial accelerator theory and disaster short-sight hypothesis in behavioral finance explore the cyclical causes of credit behavior;finally,this paper combs the two aspects of credit crunch effect and monetary policy transmission effect.The channel of influence of commercial bank capital buffer on credit behavior.Based on the above theoretical analysis,considering that the new method of capital supervision in China was implemented in 2013,and the research objects selected in the existing research are mostly listed banks,this paper adds some city commercial banks based on the sample of listed banks,and selects the time from 2005 to 2018.The span constitutes the non-balanced panel data of 24 commercial banks,and adopts the single-step system GMM estimation method to empirically study the cyclical characteristics of bank capital buffer and its impact on credit behavior.The final empirical results show that:(1)China's commercial banks'capital buffering behavior is generally counter-cyclical,and after the implementation of the new capital supervision measures in 2013,the counter-cyclicality of bank capital buffers has intensified,verifying the effectiveness of capital supervision.(2)Different from the research conclusions of foreign scholars,the credit growth of commercial banks in China has the characteristics of reverse periodicity;(3)The increase of capital buffer inhibits the expansion of credit to some extent,and the reverse cycle of bank credit growth.It is also strengthened through capital buffer supervision.Capital buffer can influence the credit growth rate of commercial banks through the capital channels under monetary policy.Finally,based on the comprehensive theoretical analysis and empirical results,the countermeasures and suggestions on the status quo of China's capital supervision are given,and the future research directions are prospected for the shortcomings of the existing research.