Empirical Study On Credit Risk Of Corporate Credit In Private Enterprises

Bond market is an indispensable part,and corporate financing is mainly achieved through the bond market,in the capital market.The size of China's bond market is growing,with the growing capital market.China's credit bond market will occasionally encounter credit risk events before 2014.The issuance scale of corporate bonds is expanding rapidly,and the maturity of bonds is mainly 3-5 years,due to the reform of the related system of corporate bonds in 2015.Therefore,it is the window period for the concentration of corporate bonds to expire,and the annual corporate debt due is more than one trillion,from 2018 to 2021.Therefore,it is particularly important to identify the credit risk of corporate bonds.The risks brought about by the high leverage of non-financial companies have gradually emerged,as China's economic growth rate has entered the shift period.The risk of corporate bond payment of private enterprises will be exposed more quickly,and its impact on investors and the whole credit bond market will be more obvious under the "deleveraging" economic thinking.This paper begins with the theoretical analysis of corporate default risk,in the context of frequent corporate bond defaults.It analyzes the credit risk measurement model of corporate bonds,and analyzes the dimensional analysis of corporate credit risk assessment from four aspects: the cyclical impact of the industry and the impact of macroeconomics on the industry;Then,the article chooses a convenient,flexible,and highly popular Logistic model to evaluate the credit risk of corporate bonds;The sample collected the data of all corporate bonds issued from 2014 to the present,and sorted out a total of 36 corporate bonds with substantial defaults from 2016 to early 2019,which came from 18 main issuing companies.On this basis,the earnings data of the 18 companies in the year before default were collected,and then the original data were sorted out,and the default sample group was finally obtained.Finally,from the industry analysis,bond index analysis,financial index analysis,the descriptive analysis of the empirical research,the compiled sample data into the statistical software,the application of Logistic regression model for the private enterprise corporate bond credit risk empirical research,And based on the results of empirical analysis,recommendations are given from both the regulator and the enterprise.The conclusions of this paper help investors to assess the investment risk of corporate bonds,protect the security of funds,help corporate corporate governance decisions,avoid major operational risk events,provide reasonable advice for the company's asset-liability structure,and help companies analyze Discriminating potential debt risks;research that contributes to corporate bond credit risk will help regulators optimize corporate bond issuance management systems,improve bond issue quality,adjust credit spreads,and optimize bond market structure.