The Effectiveness Of Structural Monetary Policy Based On DSGE Model

Traditional macroeconomic theory holds that monetary policy can achieve the goal of macroeconomic adjustment by influencing the total amount of money or market interest rate through the use of aggregate instruments.Therefore,the Central Bank of China mainly adopted the aggregate monetary policy to maintain reasonable economic growth,adequate employment,low inflation and equilibrium of balance of payments in the past.Since the subprime mortgage crisis in 2007,the real problems of monetary and macroeconomic regulation have been exacerbated,and the contradiction of aggregate monetary policy has been intensified.This makes people rethink and optimize the monetary economic theory,and promotes the central bank to innovate monetary instruments.Under the complicated international economic situation and huge domestic economic downturn pressure,the Central Bank of China has gradually introduced innovative structural monetary policy instruments since 2013,including Directional Reduction of Deposit Reserve Rate,Directional Reloan,Short-term Liquidity Operations,Standing Lending Facility,Medium-term Lending Facility,and Pledged Supplementary Lending,etc.The purpose of this Monetary Policy is to strengthen financial support for key and weak areas such as agriculture,rural areas,small and micro enterprises,independent innovation,energy conservation and environmental protection,employment,education,etc.,and strictly restrict credit support for resources and energy industries with high energy consumption and pollution.With the deepening of structural monetary policy,it is necessary to fully and accurately understand whether such directional structural monetary policy can play a guiding role in industrial restructuring and restrain more funds from flowing to resources and energy industries with high energy consumption and pollution.Domestic and foreign scholars have conducted in-depth research on the effectiveness of structural monetary policy,and the research is very rich,which has laid the foundation for the study of this paper.By sorting out the current research status and existing deficiencies at home and abroad,some shortcomings,we find that there are some shortcomings.Firstly,the research on the effectiveness of the structural monetary policy mainly focuses on quantitative analysis,lacking a unified mathematical framework.Secondly,there are few studies on structural monetary policy on industrial restructuring.A few studies focus on the weak areas such as agriculture,countryside,small and micro enterprises,automobile manufacturing and real estate.There is a lack of research on the impact of structural monetary policy on resources and energy industries with high energy consumption and pollution and industrial restructuring.Therefore,this paper uses DSGE model to establish a unified mathematical framework for structural monetary policy.The empirical research contents and corresponding conclusions of this paper are as follows.First of all,it summarizes the unified transmission channels of structural monetary policy which suits China's characteristics.Through the analysis of the characteristics and transmission channels of quantitative structural monetary policies and price-based structural monetary policies,it is found that the core of the transmission channels of structural monetary policy in China is to adjust the financing cost and influence the internal structure of commercial banks' credit assets,thereby adjusting the industrial financing cost,indirectly affecting the industrial structure through the loan structure,and laying the foundation for the establishment of the mathematical model of structural monetary policy.Secondly,we use DSGE model to construct a structural monetary policy analysis framework which includes four departments: family,intermediate manufacturer,final manufacturer and bank.Using the monetary policy mechanism analyzed above,this paper introduces four kinds of structural monetary policy instruments: directional adjustment of the proportion of refinancing,directional adjustment of refinancing interest rate,directional adjustment of deposit reserve rate and directional adjustment of deposit reserve interest rate to construct the bank discount profit function.At the same time,the concept of negative externality in production is introduced to analyze the impact of structural monetary policy on negative externality industries.Finally,an empirical simulation analysis of the DSGE model is performed.Taking energy-consuming and energy-intensive industries with high energy consumption and high pollution as research objects,we selects the macro data from January 2013 to December 2017 to simulate the parameters,and uses the Bayesian estimation method to calibrate the structural parameters which affect the steady state.At the same time,investment cost plus shock and loose monetary policy shock are introduced.The analysis shows that the four types of structural monetary policies can effectively reduce the negative externalities,among which the price-based structural monetary policy performs best.In addition,by comparing the impulse response under different shocks,we find that structural monetary policy is less sensitive to exogenous shocks and has better policy reference.Based on the corresponding empirical simulation results,the following suggestions are made.Firstly,we should scientifically define the scope of structural monetary policy regulation and prevent free-rider behavior;Secondly,we should continuously and steadily promote the marketization of interest rates,strengthen the transmission of interest rates between different maturities,and improve the effectiveness of structural monetary policy instruments in regulating liquidity;Thirdly,we should establish a scientific and effective mechanism for monitoring the flow of funds.Finally,we should coordinate the use of structural monetary policy and other macro-policies to promote industrial restructuring.