Research On The Spillover Effect Of Systemic Risk Between The Real Industry And The Banking Industry

The global financial crisis in 2008 has aroused the attention of all countries on strengthening financial supervision and maintaining financial stability.The issue of systemic risk management has become a hot topic,attracting extensive attention from the theoretical circle and decision-makers.In the structure of China’s financial industry,the banking sector plays an important role,with its asset scale accounting for more than 80% of the total asset scale.Preventing systemic risks in the banking industry has become the core of maintaining financial stability.As an important intermediary in the financial system,banks are closely connected with the real industry through credit business,and their system stability is affected by various industries.After the financial crisis,the proportion of bank credit in China’s real industry keeps climbing,and the "deleveraging" policy makes liquidity tight.Under the pressure of economic downshift and industrial restructuring,the risk level of the industry is likely to rise substantially.The experience and lessons of previous financial crises show that although systemic risks are manifested in the financial industry,they are rooted in the real industry.So is there a risk spillover between the real industry and the banking industry? How are risks transmitted between the real industry and the bank industry? How to measure the risk spillovers between them? How to construct an effective risk isolation mechanism? These are questions that need to be answered.In view of this,this paper studies the spillover effect of systemic risk between the real industry and the banking industry,trying to find the answer to the above problems.Based on a detailed understanding of relevant literature at home and abroad,this paper sorts out the concept,causes and transmission channels of systemic risk,summarizes the commonly used measurement methods of systemic risk in current studies,and analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of various measurement methods.Secondly,the paper discusses the role of the real industry in the diffusion of systemic risk through the analysis of the 2008 U.S.financial crisis,and expounds the feedback mechanism between the real industry and the banking industry based on the financial accelerator theory,and analyzes the mechanism of action.Combined with the status quo of China’s real industry and banking system,the potential factors causing systemic risk are explored.Thirdly,major listed Banks and real enterprises in China are selected as the analysis samples,and the spillover effect of systemic risk between the real industry and the banking industry is measured by using the ShenWan first-level industry index data.Rank the risk spillovers of various industries to identify systemically important industries and systemically sensitive industries.Taking the supply-side reform as the policy breakpoint,this paper analyzes the changes of systemic risk spillover in the real industry before and after the policy,and discusses the role of supply-side reform in preventing and controlling the spillover of systemic risk between the real industry and the banking industry.Finally,the paper summarizes the research conclusions and puts forward some policy Suggestions based on the perspective of preventing and defusing systemic risks.On the one hand,we should build a full-scope macro-prudential supervision system,establish a risk isolation mechanism,and focus on the risk status of systemically important industries and systemically sensitive industries.On the other hand,we will keep credit steady,strengthen the expected management of the credit market,and improve the two-pillar regulatory framework of monetary policy and macro-prudential policy.