Greenland Group Credit Risk Identification, Measurement And Management

After the property market entered the winter,the problems of tight capital,rapid expansion,unsuitable products,and high-cost financing caused by macro-controls caused real estate companies and intermediaries to fall into a large area.Even if the large-scale enterprises with superior strength encounter the market downturn and the sales are difficult,it is possible that the project will be shut down.The buyers may not be able to get the houses on time,and some investors who invest in real estate projects will also suffer losses.In September 2017,the semi-annual reports issued by Greenland Holdings Group Co.Ltd.(hereinafter referred to as “Greenland Group” or “Greenland”)showed that some subsidiaries of Greenland Liaoning were formally defaulted due to inability to pay interest,and their debt defaults led to the credit rating of economic entities.Decline.Based on this,based on the theory of corporate credit risk management,this paper first analyzes the current situation of Greenland Group’s debt,and then transitions to the introduction of Greenland Group’s debt default case to evaluate the credit risk of Greenland Group.In order to analyze the credit risk of Greenland Group more effectively and realize the dynamic analysis and monitoring of the trend of credit risk change,this paper first evaluates the credit risk of green space based on KMV model,and then combines Z-score scoring model to analyze and analyze.The change law of the company’s credit risk level during this period.The measurement results show that the credit risk of Greenland Group is still at a low level in the initial stage of the listing,but its default distance DD is decreasing before the default of “Greenland Liaoning”,and the theoretical EDF is rising,reflecting the accumulation of credit risk of the company.Before the third quarter of 2017,Greenland Group’s default distance continued to decline,and the theoretical EDF also gradually increased.At the end of the fourth quarter of 2017,the company’s default distance dropped to 1.58,the theoretical EDF reached 5.76%,and the credit risk suddenly increased.In view of the changes in the internal and external operating environment of Greenland Group,2016 is the beginning of the shrinking phase of China’s real estate industry,while Greenland Group has expanded to the market more.Although the Greenland Group’s default distance has increased and the theoretical EDF value has decreased in the following six months,since the end of the fourth quarter of 2017,the above two indicators have been reversed again,the default distance has gradually decreased,and the theoretical EDF value has remained at At a higher level,the company’s credit risk as a whole shows an upward trend.Based on the results of the above analysis,this paper finally proposes countermeasures and suggestions for credit risk prevention in order to resolve regional and industrial financial risks and promote structural reform of the supply side of the economy,which has certain practical significance for the construction and improvement of China’s financial market.The lessons will also provide a reference for other companies in the same industry to avoid risks and respond to crises.