My Country's Direct Investment And Risk Analysis In Countries Along The "Belt And Road"

With the “Belt and Road” initiative and the “going out” strategy of Chinese enterprises,China's Outward FDI in the countries along the “Belt and Road” has increased significantly.In 2017,The investment in countries along the “Belt and Road” was $20.17 billion,up 31.5% year-on-year.However,the “Belt and Road” countries have low levels of economic development,political stability and governance are not high,and social and cultural differences are large,enterprises will encounter higher risks in the process of investment.Therefore,it is important to study the current situation and risks of China's direct investment along the “Belt and Road” countries.This paper takes 65 countries along the “Belt and Road” as a sample,and the indicator data adopts annual data for 2008-2017.First,based on the statistical data,this paper analyzes the status of direct investment of Chinese enterprises along the“Belt and Road” countries.Second,this paper constructs a risk assessment model by using specific indicator data related to risk factors such as political risk,economic risk,social risk and relations with China,and evaluates and compares the direct investment risks of countries along the “Belt and Road”.Third,this paper uses principal component analysis and panel data regression models to verify whether investment risk factors such as economic risk,political risk,social risk and relations with China have an impact on China's Outward FDI in the countries along the “Belt and Road”,and analyze the degree of concern of Chinese enterprises on investment risks in the process of investment.Finally,the paper proposes corresponding countermeasures based on the research results.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)China's Outward FDI flows and stocks in the countries along the “Belt and Road” maintain a rapid growth trend.The investment in the ASEAN region is the largest,and direct investment flows to the ASEAN region account for 66.99% of the total investment flows of the “Belt and Road” countries;The investment in Central and Eastern Europe is the smallest,and the direct investment flows to Central and Eastern Europe account for 2.09% of the total investment flows of the “Belt and Road” countries.(2)There are four main external risks for Chinese companies to invest directly in countries along the “Belt and Road”: economic risk,political risk,social risk and relations with China.Among them,the overall risk level of the ASEAN region is the lowest,the overall risk level of the West Asia region is the highest,and the economic risk,political risk,social risk and relations with China in different regions are quite different.(3)In the process of direct investment by Chinese enterprises along the “Belt and Road”,In addition to being affected by the basic economic situation of the host country,investment activities also have a significant relationship with the host country's relations with China.However,the relationship between investment activities and political risk factors and social risk factors is not significant.This paper shows that Chinese enterprises are more inclined to invest in countries with relatively close relations with China,but they are less concerned about political risks and social risks.(4)In the process of direct investment along the “Belt and Road” countries,Chinese enterprises should improve the risk identification and prevention level.In order to reduce investment risks and losses,we should formulate and implement scientific and reasonable investment plans,and do well in risk identification and risk prevention.