Research On Bus Commute Choice In The Context Of Sharing Bike

"Bus priority" is an important strategy for the development of efficient urban transportation.Taking daily commuting as an example,from the perspective of occupying roads and parking spaces,public buses are the most economical and efficient way of travel compared to other modes of road transportation.New models of collaborative consumption-Sharing bicycles have indeed become efficient and popular tools for people to solve the "last mile problem" in recent years.This emerging new travel mode has significant impacts,to a certain extent,constitutes a competitive relationship with public buses on the ground.Under the impact of this new mode of commute,existing transportation systems,especially road bus systems,will inevitably be affected.Traffic congestions have always plagued urban citizens.With the rapid growth of urban travel demand,the contradiction between urban traffic supply and demand also appeared.Shared bikes have emerged as times required,offering an alternative to green and efficient travel mode.However,it also yields certain negative externalities,such as influencing city landscapes by errant parking and also low efficiency of transport.More importantly,people's modal choice behaviour becomes more complicated under the impact of these rapid changing modes.Therefore,in order to better cope with these effects,coordinate the urban transportation system,maximize the overall benefits of the social economy,and explore the relationship and interaction mechanism between shared bicycles and other public transportation systems is of great significance.This paper study the influencing mechanism and factors of public bus model choice under the impact of sharing bikes,since although the shared bikes have a great impact on many traditional modes of transportation,especially buses.It has been pointed out in the literature that the use of sharing bike can reduce the use of motor vehicles and reduce the external social costs of pollution caused by the use of motor vehicles,greenhouse gases,noise and congestion.Buses can overcome the long-distance transportation barriers faced by sharing bike,and sharing bike can make up for the "last mile" problem faced by buses.It can be seen that sharing bikes have a complicated mechanism for public bus mode.Sharing bike replace the original bus options to a certain extent,but also promote the synergy between bus and other public transportation modes.Studying their interactions and influencing factors is of great significance to further understand how to deal with the impact of new models on existing transportation systems.This paper investigates the choice preferences and influencing factors of people's travel modes in different scenarios by using Stated Preference(SP)data obtained from declarative preference experiments.And this paper explores the influence factors which influence travelers' modal choice decision based on the SERVQUAL model and the existing satisfaction scale.Especially,with respect to the customer behavior,the existing measurement indicators are sorted and the gaps between customer expectation and reality perception are measure.In terms of the characteristics of individual travelers,socio demographic factors are considered.The purpose of this paper is to study the influencing factors of public transportation choice in megacities in the context of the rapid development of sharing bike competition.Using Logit model based on latent variables compare with decision tree and random forest algorithm proposed by Breiman,the data is fully classified and analyzed to explore the impact factors of public bus choice under the impact of sharing bikes.The emergence of new mode will inevitably influence the existing transportation system.Clarify the influencing factors and traveler's behavioral responds will help policy makers and city managers to better maintaining different mode's own advantages and coordinating their corresponding shortages,therefore promote the sustainable and harmonious development of comprehensive transportation system.Both logit analysis and random forest model is adopted and compared in this paper.Both methods have different purpose and advantages,Logit regression is good to study and explaining people's intentions,however,the decision tree model is more systematic and clear.The decision tree and random forest algorithm proposed by Breiman can reduce the problem of high complexity,uncertainty and randomness in the perspective of personal travel mode selection,and obtain more intuitive,universal and convenient decision-making framework for policy recommendations.Moreover,compared with the discrete selection model(MNL model)which is widely applied based on the principle of utility maximization,the random forest is a machine learning prediction model based on decision tree,it can make the model achieve better performance and can be applied to predict continuous variables and categorical variables,which is very important for understanding and forecasting bus demand in transportation planning and policy making.The existing research explores the influence mechanism and influencing factors of public bus and sharing bike.Compared with this,the perspective of this paper is unique.The focus of the topic is on the impact of the new traffic mode on the old mode and the research on the future development trend.Secondly,the variables selected in this paper are unique.Many behavioral economics are referenced.Psychological theory has been takes into account some latent variables.The research also involves different travel purposes,urban bus satisfaction and sharing bike satisfaction,as well as the choice of how certain weather conditions affect people's travel patterns.Finally,this paper introduces comparison methodological,and compares the latent variable MNL model and random forest also have a comparative study.This paper also conducts in-depth investigation and analysis in the context of public bus modal choice under influences of sharing bikes.Finally,based on the results,this paper explores how to coordinate and guide the urban transport modal choice,more specifically,bus modal choice,under the impact of sharing bikes.Thus alleviating traffic congestion,and supporting sustainable development of urban transportation system.