Comparative Study On Forecast Effect Of Financial Crisis Based On Consolidated Statement And Parent Company Statement

Information of "Financial Safety Assessment Report of China's Non-financial Listed Companies" issued by Institute of Credit Research,Ministry of Commerce,China's total financial security index(FSI)of non-financial listed companies has been declining for six consecutive years since 2012.In the context of the decline of corporate financial safety index year by year,early warning of corporate financial crisis has attracted much attention both in academia and in practice.China's listed companies each year are classified as ST or*ST companies,a considerable part because of failure to accurately predict financial crises in a timely manner and cause problems business aspects.If management and investors and other stakeholders to use the financial crisis early warning tools,timely and accurate take appropriate measures,the signs of the crisis strangled in the cradle,you can avoid many unnecessary losses,therefore,whether it is for business management,investors or creditors also,the financial crisis early warning is essential.However,it is not difficult to find out from the existing literatures on financial crisis early warning at home and abroad that the existing literature mainly uses the financial statements to select financial indicators and construct a financial crisis early warning model.There are few documents comparing the consolidated financial statements with the financial statements of the parent company.Differences in terms.Under the background of "double disclosure system",we will face such a problem:when to make financial crisis warning,when to use consolidated report data,when to use parent company report data?This is the focus of this article.First of all,in the first three chapters,the paper mainly expounds the literature and theory of financial crisis early warning,and compares the difference between the consolidated statement and the parent company's report from the theoretical level analysis.Secondly,according to the status quo of the dual disclosure system of listed companies in China,this paper uses the literature research method and the empirical research method to select 105 crisis companies and the industry types and assets of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets that were first ST or*ST from 2014 to 2016.A sample of 105 normal companies with a scale of 1:1 was used as a research sample.Thirdly,based on the above,this paper selects the appropriate financial indicators and non-financial indicators as the initial index system,and selects the more suitable model method based on the comparison of the financial crisis early warning models.After the normality test,The T test and the U test screened the indicators with significant differences.Using these indicators,the T-1 and T-2 consolidated reports and the parent company's Logistic financial crisis early warning model were established respectively,and the consolidated statements and the parent company statements T-were respectively 1.The goodness of fit and prediction accuracy of the T-2 time warning model are compared and analyzed,and the overall difference between the consolidated report and the parent company's financial crisis warning effect is obtained.Finally,the article further divides the research sample into a more detailed comparative analysis of the business-oriented strategy and the investment-oriented strategy and draws conclusions.The conclusion of this paper can be divided into three points:On the whole,the financial crisis early warning effect of T-1 and T-2 consolidated statements is better than that of mother's bulletin.Under the management-oriented strategy,the financial crisis early warning effect of parent company statements in T-1 and T-2 years is better than that of consolidated statements.Under the investment-oriented strategy,the financial crisis early warning effect of T-1 and T-2 consolidated statements is better than that of parent company statements.