Is The Stock Market Returns Influenced By The Investor Sentiment

Behavioral finance is a theory pioneered by a combination of finance and psychology.The Investor Sentiment Theory plays a huge role in the field which is developing.This theory,combined with the cognition of psychology,puts forward the hypothesis of “social people” and believes that people who trade in the market are not all rational.Based on this,some scholars think that investor sentiment may explain some which happen in the securities market.With the development of the Internet,some scholars have begun to notice that some information on the Internet may have an impact on the securities market.These scholars screened the information from the Internet and found that some of the information contained in the news,forum comments,etc.may be transformed into something like investor sentiment,which in turn influence the stock market.Some of them began to use computer technology and some knowledge of the linguistics to carry out this research.After reviewing the relevant literature,this paper decided to use this method to study the impact of something like investor sentiment contained in the information from stock internet forum on stock market yield.Based on the selected SSE A shares,this paper uses the Web crawler technology to crawl the relevant data such as user comment from the Eastmoney Guba(a stock network forum).The date of data we select is from July 1st,2013 to June 30 th,2018.After cleaning the crawled data,the return neural network algorithm in deep learning is used for text mining to extract the investor sentiment in the text.Finally we empirically research the possible impact of investor sentiment extracted from China’s stock network forum in the same period and lag period on stock market yields.The results show that in the same period,the optimism of investor sentiment can have a significant positive impact on the stock market’s return rate,while the investor’s pessimism is significantly negatively correlated with the stock market yields.Individual investor sentiment divergence did not have a significant impact on the stock market yield in the same period.In addition,the changes of the emotional activity of individual investors can have a corresponding impact on the stock market’s rate of return.In other words,the change in the activity of optimism has a significant positive impact on the stock market’s yield in the same period,and the change in the pessimistic activity has a significant negative impact on the stock market’s yield.In addition,stock market returns will also have an impact on the sentiment.From the lag period,the optimism of individual investors has a significant positive correlation with the stock market return rate in the future.The pessimism of individual investors has a significant negative correlation with the stock market return rate.However,it has not been observed that the investor’s emotional divergence can have a significant impact on future stock market returns.Regardless of optimism or pessimism,the changes of activity of them have not had a significant impact on future stock market returns.This study not only helps to understand the impact mechanism of information from China’s stock network forum on the stock market,but also provides a certain decision-making basis for the supervision department to regulate and supervise the market.