Monetary Policy,Multi-Agent Supply And Long-Term Mechanism For Stable Development Of Real Estate

Since the reform of housing market,China's real estate industry has experienced rapid growth,the rise of real estate price in adjustment and regulation and the increasing concentration of housing companies have become a typical phenomenon.This article summarizes it as a characteristic fact that "large ships easily block the waves and big wave causes big ship building".Under the background of the establishment of multi-agent supply housing system at the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,this paper constructs a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium(DSGE)model featuring heterogeneous housing prices to test the impact of monetary policy controls on real estate supply equilibrium under the Chinese scenario.(1)Under the control of monetary policy,real estate prices can not be effectively suppressed.On the contrary,an important internal reason for the increase in the increase is that the large-scale state-owned large-scale real estate enterprises and non-state-owned small and medium-sized real estate enterprises,due to their own differences in scale and corporate nature,lead to changes in the fluctuations in corporate output,ultimately affecting the fluctuations in real estate prices,under a certain degree of market monopoly situation.At the same time,this paper also finds that this possible influencing factor also has an important change feature,that is,in the case of higher monopoly,the output fluctuation of state-owned large real estate enterprises will become smaller,non-state-owned small and medium-sized real estate enterprises.The greater the fluctuation in output,and the output fluctuations of non-state-owned small and medium-sized real estate enterprises are greater than the output fluctuations of large state-owned real estate enterprises.Because the covariance coefficient of real estate prices and state-owned large real estate enterprises is positive,and non-state-owned small and medium-sized real estate enterprises The covariance coefficient of the output is negative.As a result,the volatility of real estate prices will eventually increase.(2)The dominant and disadvantaged monetary policies dominated by quantity type are relatively prominent in the process of regulation: the quantitative effect is long and moderate,the intensity of action is relatively small,and the effect is relatively slow;the intensity of price action Big,short time,quick results.(3)This paper simulates the changes in social welfare losses under different monopoly scenarios,reflecting that the higher the degree of monopoly,the higher the degree of monopoly,will lead to fluctuations in output and inflation rates,both in terms of price-based monetary policy and quantitative monetary policy.The greater the volatility,the further increase in social welfare losses.The lower the degree of monopoly,the smaller the fluctuations in output and the inflation rate,and the smaller the social welfare losses.The series of studies in this paper has important implications for understanding the necessity of multi-agent supply and focusing on changing the supply-side management of real estate market that is neglected by traditional demand management.