Analysis And Forecast Of Grain Yield In Heilongjiang Province

In this paper,the main factors affecting grain yield in Heilongjiang Province from 1995 to 2017 are obtained by principal component analysis and ridge estimation.The model and model are also used to model and analyze the grain output and its proportion in Heilongjiang Province from 1995 to 2017.According to the relative errors,the weight distribution is carried out,so that the model with large errors can get a small weight to construct the integrated model and make a three-year forecast,which provides some theoretical basis for the sustainable and stable increase of grain output in Heilongjiang Province.The first principal component consists of grain yield per unit area,sowing area of grain crops,total power of agricultural machinery,effective irrigation area,pure application amount of agricultural chemical fertilizer,sowing area of rice and sowing area of maize,i.e.land input,capital input,planting structure and technical structure.The load of these indicators on the first principal component is 71.661%,which indicates that science and technology,agricultural capital and planting structure are the main factors affecting grain production.The second principal component is mainly composed of agricultural workers,soybean sowing area,wheat sowing area,namely labor input,planting structure.These indicators contribute 16.254%of the sample variance of the second principal component,so the division of grain planting structure has a great impact on grain yield.Based on the estimation of principal component and ridge parameters,it is concluded that the main factor affecting grain production in Heilongjiang Province is the amount of agricultural chemical fertilizer converted into pure application,which can be seen that the amount of agricultural chemical fertilizer converted into pure application has a great effect on grain yield.Based on the grain yield and its proportional data of Heilongjiang Province from 1995 to 2017,the prediction models are established respectively according to the time series model theory and the theory of generalized two-way difference,and the theory of improving the initial value.According to the relative error principle,the relative error of the model is slightly smaller than that of the model.Then,according to the integrated medel,the black dragon from 2018 to 2020 is built.The grain output and its proportion in Jiangsu Province are forecasted.Through the analysis and prediction of this paper,we can see that there is still a lot of room for improvement in grain production in Heilongjiang Province in the future.The statistical method applied in this paper provides some theoretical basis for the prediction and analysis of grain yield.