Research On Bubble Measurement Of China's A-share Stock Market Based On Dynamic Gordon Model

Today,China's capital market has grown into the world's second largest capital market,the scale after the United States on Wall Street,however,in the development of capital market in China there are many problems and shortcomings.On the external level,China's stock market has always been called the "policy city",the policy is lack of continuity,the relevant laws and regulations,the system is still not sound;On the internal level,problems such as non-standard corporate governance structure and market manipulation by large institutional investors have been exposed.The aggregation of these problems,reflected in the stock market is the sharp rise and fall of stock prices,known as the "bubble" phenomenon.Therefore,it is of great significance to correctly judge whether there is a bubble in China's stock market.This is an important basis for financial regulatory authorities to judge whether the market can develop in a sustainable and healthy way and formulate reasonable regulatory measures.At the same time,it can also help investors identify market risks and choose appropriate investment strategies.Scholars at home and abroad,this paper research on the stock market bubble and its measure,using literature research,system research,the combination of static and dynamic and combination of quantitative and qualitative research methods,such as,to our country from 2005 to 2018,the Shanghai composite index and shenzhen component index to treat the monthly data mining and using vector autoregression model and dynamic Gordon model on Chinese a-share stock market bubble degree system,comprehensive analysis,obtained the Chinese stock market bubble conclusions exist for A long time,Moreover,it is found that the bubble of China's stock market was the most serious between 2007 and 2009 and 2015 and 2016,which is consistent with the trend of China's stock market.The above analysis and empirical results can help investors better understand the degree of bubble in China's a-share stock market and make more effective risk decisions and asset allocation programs.And for regulators to build a risk prevention system,early warning system to provide some reference.