Real Estate Price Bubble Measurement And Supervision Effect In 35 Large Medium-sized Cities

The rapid rise of housing price and the phenomenon of "one price per day" and "one house is hard to find" emerge one after another.Whether there is a bubble in the real estate price has become a topic of daily discussion,and scholars have different opinions on this issue.The recent rapid rise in the property market has also led to heavy regulation by central and local governments.The most typical regulation is the policy of limited loan,limited purchase and limited price.However,with the introduction of the strict three-limit policy,the rising momentum of housing prices in various regions has not been effectively curbed,which raises the question: Is there a bubble in the real estate price and how to measure the degree of bubble? What is the main factor that each city house price fluctuates? Does the three-limit regulation policy of local government have significant effect on the supervision of housing price? Therefore,the systematic answer to the above questions is the research motivation of this paper.Firstly,on the basis of relevant literature research results at home and abroad,this paper sorted out and summarized the literature,selected the ratio of housing price to income to measure the real estate price bubble,and used GSADF method to judge the existence,size and duration of the bubble.On the results of previous studies,this paper uses the factor analysis method to extract the real estate price bubble influence factor,the supply and demand,cost and revenue factors respectively,and cited speculation and expectations,in government regulation,chose the limit of credit,purchase and price policy into the model to carry on the empirical analysis,to measure the government's regulatory effects on real estate prices.Secondly,in the empirical analysis part,this article 35 large and medium cities in the first quarter of 2008 ~ 2018 in the third quarter data as the research sample,according to different cities during the duration of the real estate price bubble,35 large and medium cities can be divided into five categories,each city were studied using random effect model of panel the influence factors of the housing bubble and the effect of government regulation.The results show that :(1)the bubble test results show that at the significance level of 5%,except for yinchuan,changsha and lanzhou,real estate prices in 32 other cities all have bubbles,and there are differences in the duration,degree and generation times of housing price bubbles in each city.(2)the real estate market demand,housing cost and real estate price bubble in five categories of cities are positively correlated,indicating that the real estate market demand and real estate cost are the main driving force for the growth and expansion of real estate price bubble in five categories of cities;(3)the real estate supply on the market and the urban economic development(income level)are both less than 0,and the coefficient value is significant,indicating that the real estate price bubble can be restrained by the market supply and the development of urban economy;(4)the speculative factor only has a significant positive effect on the real estate price bubbles in category 5,and the expected factor can stimulate the real estate price bubbles in all kinds of cities;(5)there are differences in theregulatory effect of policies in various cities.The loan-restricting policy is effective in the regulation of real estate price bubbles in all cities.It has time-delay effect in category 1,category 3 and category 5.The effect of purchase restriction policy on the supervision of housing price bubbles in all kinds of cities is significant.Except for category 1,the implementation effect of other four types of cities is only significant in the third period.The price limit policy is only effective in the cities of category 3 and category 5,while the price limit policy in other three types of cities fails to achieve the desired effect.Finally,relevant policy Suggestions are put forward based on the results of the empirical analysis above,which has certain reference value for the government to control the real estate price bubble,reduce the degree of the housing price bubble,regulate the real estate market,regulate the real estate price,as well as the "policy for the city" regulation method proposed by the 19 th national congress.