The Research On China's Investment Risk Management And Control Along "The Belt And Road" Countries

The concepts of “The Silk Road Economic Belt” and “The 21 st Century Maritime Silk Road” were first proposed in 2013,“the Belt and Road” for short.With the gradual advancement of “the Belt and Road” strategy,China's investments in countries along “the Belt and Road” have reached a rapid development stage,which not only brings new opportunities for China's overseas investment but also certain risks.So the risk management and control of China's overseas investments have increasingly become a key and difficult issue in the construction of “the Belt and Road”.Therefore,the risk management and control of China's investments in 35 countries along “the Belt and Road” is taken as the research topic.Firstly,the theories that related to overseas investments risk are laid out,including Risk Warning Theory,Country Risk Theory and Risk Control Theory,which lay a theoretical foundation for the research.Secondly,the basic situation of China's investments in countries along the route is analyzed,including the overall trend,the industry inclination and regional distribution.Then a overview of China's investments in those countries is drawn.Then on the basis of the Country Risk Theory,the specific conditions of those countries and previous investment experiences,three major types of political,economic and social risks that China would be confronted with in those countries in terms of investments are qualitatively sorted out.After that 31 secondary risk indicators in political,economic and social aspects are selected to construct a investment risk evaluation index system.And the Complex Network Method is used to analyze the importance of the investment risk indicators.And after that the objective weights of the secondary risk indicators are determined.And then the investment risk in countries along the route quantitatively is evaluated.And the risk assessment values of political,economic and social risk in those countries in 2014,2015 and 2016 are obtained.Then the country risk assessment value in those countries are obtained and the risk assessment values are ranked.With the application of SPSS Clustering Analysis Method to classify and analyze the country risks in 2016.And those countries are categorized into 3 categories with high country risks,medium risks and low risks,including their political,economic and social risks are taken into consideration.The national characteristics and risk sources of countries at different risk levels are analyzed.And then the national investment risk assessment values are compared in 2014 and 2015 with 2016 to obtain the changes in country risk along “the Belt and Road” in 2016,as well as the changes in political,economic and social risks.In addition,five countries in Europe,four countries in the Asia-Pacific region,six countries in the Americas and six countries in Africa are selected to measure the investment risk assessment values of each country.And the average of political,economic and social risk in terms of region and economy are calculated.And the risk assessment values of different regions and economies are obtained,which can be compared with the investment risks of countries along “the Belt and Road” to study the relative risks of China's investment in those countries.Finally,according to“the Belt and Road” national investment risk source,corresponding prevention and control countermeasures for the investment risks are proposed.Last but not least,the main idea research deficiencies and research prospects of this thesis are summarized to promote China's better and faster development.