Measuring The Systematic Risk Of China's Credit Market Based On Financial Pressure Index Method

Nowadays,At the present stage,China's financial system is gradually improving.Financial liberalization and economic globalization have become the general trend.Serious systemic financial risks in one country may affect all countries in the world and trigger a global financial crisis.Therefore,how to better measure and monitor the systemic financial risk is a problem that scholars have been studying and discussing all over the world.This article first introduced the selected topic background and research significance and the related literature at home and abroad.The credit market concept,financial stress index method and Logistic model are introduced in detail.Secondly,twelve indicators that can reflect the systemic risk of the credit market are selected to calculate the financial pressure index of China's credit market from 2007 to 2017 which based on the financial pressure index method.The conclusions drawn in different periods are compared with the actual economic situation.Combined with Logistic regression,we select credit-related indicators such as credit ratio and macroeconomic factors in China's six major industries,and measure the probability of industry default,which further proves that there is no serious systemic risk in China's credit market.At last,the conclusion is drawn that the credit market in China is a benign and healthy market,and its systematic risk is within the normal range.Some Suggestions on the control of systemic risk in China's future credit market are put forward.The results of this study show that the pressure index of China's credit market showed a phase change during the sample period.Among them,2007-2010 is the period of relatively flat financial stress index in China's credit market,indicating that Chinese credit market has high systemic risk and the financial system is in a stable stage.From December 2007 to October 2008,due to the impact of the US subprime mortgage crisis,Chinese credit market pressure is at a higher value,implying that the systemic risk is increasing.Since 2009,credit market pressure has declined,but with the acceleration of the interest rate marketization reform process,since June 2013,credit market pressures have continued to rise,and there has been a shortage of money in the interbank lending market,and short-term liquidity shortage in the banking system.From 2015 to now,Chinese economic downward pressure is relatively obvious,and the systemic risk of the credit market is also in a stable state,then it has shown a stability trend until 2017.