Research On Asset-backed Securitization Pricing Method Of Parking Lot PPP Project

In recent years,China's economic growth has been stable,the income level of residents has been continuously improved,and the consumption structure has also been transformed and upgraded.In 2018,service consumption accounted for 44.2% of the per capita consumption expenditure of Chinese residents,an increase of 1.6 percentage points over the previous year.The increase in consumption levels has led to an increase in car ownership.By the end of 2018,China's car ownership has reached 240 million,and there are 61 cities in the country with more than one million cars.In this context,the problem of “difficult parking” has become increasingly prominent.It is conservatively estimated that the supply gap for parking spaces in China has exceeded 50 million.In order to meet the growing demand for parking,on the one hand,we should “throttle”,develop smart parking,and improve the efficiency of parking space use;on the other hand,we should “open source”,build new parking lots,and increase the supply of parking space.The initial construction of the parking lot requires a large amount of capital investment and it is of high sedimentation cost,long investment recovery period and low return on investment,which lower the participation enthusiasm of social capital.For this reason,most local governments in economically developed areas are directly invested by the government for construction while local governments in economically underdeveloped areas who have less financial resources,often use the PPP model to solve their financing problems effectively.Therefore,the parking lot PPP model has been widely used in these regions.At present,there have been 95 parking lot PPP projects in the PPP project database of the Ministry of Finance of China,21 projects of which have entered the implementation phase.Asset-backed securitization is an effective way to solve the problem of “difficult financing” in parking lot PPP projects and to revitalize high-quality stock assets.China's asset-backed securitization of PPP project is still in the exploratory stage,and its official launch in China is marked by the successful issuance of the first batch of four PPP project asset-backed securitization products in 2017.China's parking lot PPP project has a large stock,and the potential market for parking lot PPP project asset-backed securitization is large.However,there is only one product of parking lot PPP asset-backed securitization that has been issued so far,so that few experts and scholars engaged in pricing research of parking lot PPP project assetbacked securitization.Therefore,it is urgent to explore a pricing model suitable for parking PPP project asset-backed securitization products.The solution of this problem has both theoretical and practical significance.It not only helps to determine the price of the product scientifically,but also balances the interests of the financing party and the investor.Based on the advantages of asset-backed securitization,it can also help to promote the development of the parking lot PPP project asset-backed securitization and attract social capital to participate in the construction of parking facilities.China's asset-backed securitization of PPP project started relatively late so that a systematic and theoretical pricing system suitable for China's PPP projects haven't been formed yet.At present,most products still adopt the method of bidding or open market inquiry when pricing.This paper initially takes the " difficult financing " problem of parking lot PPP project as the starting point,analyzes the actual basis of asset-backed securitization of PPP project in China's parking lot,explores the main factors affecting the pricing of PPP project asset-backed securitization products,and studies the basic elements of the project's pricing system which is suitable for China's national conditions.Then this paper compares the four commonly used pricing methods in the world and combined with the characteristics of the parking lot PPP project,it concludes that the option adjustment spread pricing method is more suitable for the pricing of parking lot PPP project asset-backed securitization,because it fully considers various factors such as multiple paths of interest rate and the probability of advance payment.Furthermore,based on the option adjustment spread pricing method,the pricing model of parking lot PPP project asset-backed securitization is constructed.When using the model,the logistic regression model is used to calculate the prepayment rate,and the interest rate binary tree model is used to simulate the future interest rate path,so that the pricing result is closer to the actual price.Additionally,this paper applies the model to the pricing analysis of the product named “Huaxi Securities-SCIG PPP Project Asset Support Special Plan”,and compares the difference between the pricing result and the actual issue price,analyzes the reasons,and demonstrates the feasibility and effectiveness of the model so that it can provide a reference for the pricing of parking lot PPP asset-backed securitization products in the future.Finally,combined with the actual situation of China's PPP asset-backed securitization,it is recommended to establish an information database and supporting information system related to PPP asset-backed securitization,further improve the pricing system and credit rating system of PPP asset-backed securitization,and establish a scientific price elasticity mechanism.Only in this way,can we promote the modeling and systemization of product pricing and create a good institutional environment for the further development of PPP asset-backed securitization in China.