The Study On Economic Policy Uncertainty? Expected Inflation And Corporate Investment

The year of 2018 is the 40 th anniversary of reform and opening up.In the process of reform and development of the market-oriented economic system,corporate investment plays an important role in promoting,and macroeconomic regulation plays an important guiding role.As a vane of corporate behavior,the macro environment has a major impact on corporate investment behavior,especially economic policy uncertainty.From the text search results of the South China Morning Post,compared with the 2008 financial crisis,China's current economic policy is full of greater uncertainty.In the uncertain environment,what will corporate investment behavior be? The impact,through which channels are affected,is also widely concerned by people from all walks of life.As a bridge to communicate the behavior of microeconomic entities and macroeconomic policies,inflation is expected to play an important role in the above process.Based on the government work report and economic conference content of each year,the research on the transmission mechanism of economic policy uncertainty and corporate investment relationship based on expected inflation is not only consistent with China's macro-control direction,but also meets the current real economy needs.And academic research trends have certain practical significance.This paper uses China's economic policy uncertainty index constructed by Baker(2016)as a surrogate variable for China's economic policy uncertainty,based on 1,123 A-share non-financial insurance listed companies,from the first quarter of 2008 to the third of 2018.The quarter is the balance panel data of the study interval,a total of 48,289 samples,and the study of economic policy uncertainty on corporate investment behavior and its transmission mechanism.In the measurement of expected inflation,this paper uses the urban depositor survey conducted by the central bank every quarter to express the expected inflation rate by the rolling regression of the logarithm of the future price expectation index and the actual inflation rate in the questionnaire.In order to accurately estimate the mediating effect of expected inflation,this paper uses the non-parametric Bootstrap test based on stepwise regression to test the mediation effect to reduce the first type of error rate and improve the test power.Through theoretical derivation and empirical analysis,this paper finds that economic policy uncertainty has a significant inhibitory effect on corporate investment,which is regulated by the degree of marketization,but there is no significant difference between enterprises with different property rights and industrial nature.This phenomenon is caused by factors such as the market environment and information asymmetry,the irreversibility of fixed assets investment and the impact of mortgage value and the reform of state-owned enterprises.In order to further explore its mechanism of action,this paper constructs a linear model of economic policy uncertainty and expected inflation based on the idea of incomplete information dynamic game.Based on this,a mediation effect model is constructed to test the uncertainty of expected inflation.There is a mediating relationship between corporate investment,and stepwise regression tests show that expected inflation does appear to be a partial mediating effect in this process.In further research,this paper finds that property rights,marketization,and industry nature have a significant regulatory effect on intermediaries,showing heterogeneity,but when inflation is expected to be too high or too low,then It has an intermediary role and is characterized by the same direction of change in economic policy uncertainty.Finally,the paper tests the robustness of the model by replacing the explanatory variables,changing the way the explanatory variables are calculated,and using the annual data.The test results prove that the conclusions of this paper have certain robustness.The research in this paper has certain innovations and is rich in policy significance and academic significance.First of all,this paper has some innovations in research ideas.Based on the expectation management theory,this paper selects the expected inflation as the mediator variable,and expands the selection range of the intermediary variables in the existing research.Secondly,this paper builds the economy based on the incomplete information dynamic game theory.The linear relationship between policy uncertainty and expected inflation enriches the way existing research deals with macroeconomic variables and lays the foundation for further research.Finally,this paper clarifies economic policy uncertainty,expected inflation and corporate investment.The relationship,on the one hand,provides a basis for the government to formulate policies based on expected management.On the other hand,it also helps the public to understand and understand the inflation policy and to enhance the communication between the macro economy and the market.