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Credit Risk Assessment Of Small And Medium-sized Enterprises In China's Commercial Banks

Posted on:2020-05-20Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:M ZhangFull Text:PDF
GTID:2439330590984070Subject:Financial
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With the rapid development of China's economy and the adjustment of economic structure,small and medium-sized enterprises are in urgent need of large-scale capital development,while commercial banks are also facing enormous pressure of business competition.Their cooperation can meet the needs of both sides at the same time.However,there is a contradiction between the distrust of commercial banks on small and medium-sized enterprises and the lack of sufficient funds for small and medium-sized enterprises.Therefore,an effective credit risk assessment model must be established to predict the credit risk of small and medium-sized enterprises.Firstly,this paper defines the related concepts of small and medium-sized enterprises' credit risk,and explains the relevant theories of credit risk,including credit rationing theory,asset management theory,risk management theory and information asymmetry theory.Under the guidance of relevant theories,the credit risk evaluation index system of small and medium-sized enterprises is constructed,including 24 financial indicators and 4 non-financial indicators.The significant financial indicators are screened by principal component analysis method.Six principal components are identified and named according to the information contained.The non-financial indicators are scored by experts scoring of business indicators.Secondly,the selected indicators are substituted into the original Logistic model,and the credit risk evaluation model of small and medium-sized enterprises is constructed.The Hosmer and Lemeshow test of the model shows that the goodness of fit is good.Then,the data of the model sample group are substituted for regression analysis,and it is determined that the most significant factor affecting the credit risk of small and medium-sized enterprises is debt repayment,ability,operation ability,financial structure and enterprise management ability.The accuracy of the model is more than89%,with high accuracy.Applying the sample group to analyze the possibility of actual risk occurrence of the model,and confirm the key influencing factors according to the final results.Finally,according to the conclusion of the model,it is proposed that commercial banks should speed up the establishment of small and medium-sized enterprise database,and share resources with government departments as soon as possible,further improve the credit risk evaluation system.Figure 10;Table 19;Reference 57.
Keywords/Search Tags:commercial banks, small and medium-sized enterprises, credit risk assessment
PDF Full Text Request
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