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Research On The Internal Credit Risk Contagion Effect Of Enterprise Groups

Posted on:2020-06-16Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:Y Y ChenFull Text:PDF
GTID:2439330590993059Subject:Accounting
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
Driven by economic and social development,enterprise groups have played an increasingly important role.At the same time,the actual experience of many enterprise groups has found that when the correlation among members of the group is getting higher and higher,it is likely that credit risk is contagious.This paper studies the internal credit risk contagion effect of enterprise groups,and can provide suggestions for the prevention of credit risk from one party to the other in the development process of the enterprise group,so as to prevent the entire group from being dragged down by credit risk.This paper firstly sorts out the existing literature,studies the enterprise group and credit risk from the theoretical level,and sorts out the related concepts and basic theories that are mainly relied on in the writing process.Although this article is a case study,all corporate groups have common rules for credit risk transmission.Therefore,the author introduces the general theory of credit risk contagion,including the path and method of credit risk contagion.Based on the theoretical analysis,this paper analyzes the credit risk contagion of Dunan Group and the credit risk contagion of Yurun Group in a double case.Because there are parent companies and subsidiaries within the enterprise group,the direction of credit risk contagion may range from parent company to subsidiary company,and may also be from subsidiary company to parent company.Therefore,two cases were selected for analysis.Just as the credit risk of Dunan Group is transmitted from the parent company to the subsidiary company,the credit risk of Yurun Group is transmitted from the subsidiary company to the parent company,so as to comprehensively and systematically explain the credit risk infection.The path and method of credit risk infection of Dunan Group and Yurun Group are different,and the resulting performance and the reasons behind it are also different.In addition to the common underlying cause of diversification,the direct cause of the former is excessive associated guarantees,and the direct cause of the latter is complex associated transactions.According to the reasons of credit risk contagion in two specific cases,the author puts forward suggestions for preventing the internal credit risk contagion of enterprise groups,and hopes to provide reference for the development of enterprise groups.The conclusions drawn from this paper have three points: First,there are three kinds of internal credit risk contagion paths and three types of contagion methods.The performance of group credit risk contagion is different under different ways.Second,within the enterprise group,the reasons for credit risk transmission are internal and external.The root cause of the crushing group is blind diversification,and the direct reasons are related to related guarantees and related transactions.Thirdly,the author proposed two formulas to calculate the size of the credit risk contagion coefficient,which is related to the associated guarantees and associated transactions.Under certain conditions,the increase in related guarantees and related party transactions will promote the spread of credit risk.The research contributions of this paper lies in: Firstly,it studies the contagion effect and contagion reasons of credit risk within the enterprise group in a double case,and tries to summarize the causes and prevention suggestions of the credit risk contagion.Secondly,there are obvious differences in the credit risk infection path,infection mode,infection performance and infection cause of the two selected cases.Combining analysis and comparison can synthetically reflect the problem of intragroup credit risk contagion effect.Third,this paper attempts to solve the problem of quantifying the size of the credit risk contagion coefficient from the case.The shortcomings of this paper are: First,the method of measuring the credit risk contagion coefficient that the author tries to put forward is a formula that combines the research conclusions of many scholars and simplifies them,and cannot make a positive guarantee for its accuracy.The author only proposed coefficients for measuring the risk of a part of the cause of infection,and it is impossible to cover everything.Secondly,although the author selected two cases for simultaneous analysis,it could not represent all the general situation.After all,the case company analysis has limitations.
Keywords/Search Tags:enterprise group, credit risk, contagion effect, Dunan Group, Yurun Group
PDF Full Text Request
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