An Empirical Study On Anchoring Effect Of Analyst Profit Forecast

In recent years,China's capital market has been greatly developed.Securities analysts have provided valuable information to market participants by publishing research reports to alleviate the information asymmetry of capital markets.For the effective operation of China's capital market,analysts are the key role of deficiency.Through the collection and collation of the target company's field research and various announcement information,the analyst uses the valuation model to estimate the future actual value of the company and make predictions of important financial indicators such as price-earnings ratio and net profit.The study found that there is a deviation between the profit forecast released by the analyst and the actual data,and there is generally an optimistic tendency.Analysis of the reasons for the prediction bias,based on the analyst's rational assumptions,due to economic interests,analysts deliberately make profit forecasts for relevant interest groups in the forecasting process.With the development of behavioral finance,psychological variables as a factor are increasingly used to explain some of the visions in the capital market,and the assumption that analysts are rational has been questioned.As a psychological phenomenon,the anchoring effect greatly influences the process of making judgments and decisions.Based on this,this paper will study whether the analyst is affected by the anchor value in the process of making profit forecast.This paper takes the analyst's earnings forecast data from 2010 to 2017 as a sample,analyzes the overall situation of analysts' profit forecast and how to adjust the changes over time,and empirically discusses the important influence of anchor value on the analyst's average profit forecast accuracy.In this paper,the forecasting bias is used as the proxy variable of the profit forecasting accuracy,and the impact of different types of anchoring values on the profit forecasting is classified,and the grouping research is carried out according to the company's information disclosure quality.Finally,the robustness test is conducted.The research in this paper finds that Chinese securities analysts have insufficient response to the new information released by A-share listed companies,and their profit forecasts have an anchoring effect;securities analysts' profit forecast will use the actual profit value of the previous fiscal year as a static anchor for profit forecasting.The anchoring bias positively affects the analyst's forecast bias;with the release of the announcement information,the analyst will correct and adjust the previous profit forecast,and the analyst will prefer to use the dynamic actual profit value as the dynamic anchor for profit forecasting.When predicting a company's low degree of uncertainty,the high quality of information disclosure will weaken the anchoring effect of analysts' earnings forecasts.In this paper,the robustness test is carried out by adjusting the calculation method of the interpreted variables.The results show that the research in this paper is robust.It is mainly divided into six chapters: The first chapter is the introduction,which mainly proposes the research questions,clarifies the research significance,research ideas and research methods,and explains the innovation and deficiency.The second chapter is a literature review,which summarizes the domestic and foreign literature on analyst profit forecasting and anchoring effects and makes a brief review.The third chapter is the theoretical analysis and research hypothesis.It mainly introduces the concept and related theory of analyzing profit forecasting behavior and anchoring effect,and proposes four research hypotheses based on theoretical analysis.The fourth chapter is the study design,which introduces the collection and processing of data,select variables to build a regression model.The fifth chapter is the empirical test and regression analysis.The empirical method is used to verify that the analyst has anchor effect in the profit forecast.The sixth chapter is conclusions,recommendations and prospects.Most of the existing literature research on analysts' profit forecasting is analyzed from the rational interpretation of analyst prediction accuracy and its prediction bias.Under the assumption that the analyst is not completely rational,this paper uses the anchoring effect to explain the analyst's forecast bias,which not only draws on the research of irrational factors affecting analysts' decision-making,but also innovates,enriching the perspective of analysts' profit forecast bias research.