The Design Of Supplier Demand Forecast System Of UFI Company

UFI is a facilitator and supplier that is focused on the electronic products' design and production,and owns its competency in the industry.However,in the course of its development,the problem of demand forecasting confusion is gradually highlighted.The large fluctuations in demand forecasting damage the conventional production arrangement and operation planning of the enterprise,which makes it difficult to effectively improve and improve the operational performance and operating profit of the enterprise.This paper describes the current situation of UFI's demand forecast based on the overall level of the enterprise and the main pilot product layer,and finds out five major problems in the enterprise demand forecast.Through in-depth analysis,four main reasons leading to demand forecasting problems are summarized.Among them,the most critical factor is the lack of perfect demand forecasting system.Based on the relevant theories and methods of demand management,according to the theoretical guidance of the existing literature and the practical experience of related companies,UFI's demand forecasting system is designed and constructed.The demand forecasting system mainly includes planning,implementation,monitoring,feedback and evaluation parts.Among them,the demand forecasting plan includes designing or adjusting the demand management team,formulating or adjusting the demand forecasting target,planning,designing and adjusting all aspects of the demand forecasting system;the demand forecasting implementation includes selecting a reasonable demand forecasting model and conducting the forecasting level.The application and the reasonable adjustment of the demand forecasting model are implemented in the market demand forecast.The demand forecasting monitoring includes monitoring the changes in market demand and monitoring the implementation process of demand forecasting,mainly based on the settings.The warning line monitors the status quo in real time;the demand forecast feedback plays a role in tracking and feedbacking the demand forecast.The content of the feedback mainly applies to the demand forecasting plan,providing guidance and reference for the overall demand forecasting plan of the enterprise;The main content of demand forecasting evaluation is to give evaluation indicators of enterprise demand forecasting status and related enterprise personnel's implementation status,follow up relevant performance situation and guide and supervise demand forecasting team to improve forecasting efficiency and continuously improve enterprise demand status.After UFI established a new demand forecasting team and implemented it in accordance with the demand forecasting system,the study found that UFI's comprehensive forecast was accurate compared with the previous year by comparing the data of the overall level of the enterprise before and after the pilot and the main pilot product level.The rate has increased by 18%,the out-of-stock rate has decreased by 12%,the inventory cost has decreased by 37%,and the inventory-to-sales ratio has been reduced to 5%.The DOS normal index of the company's main pilot products has been significantly improved,greatly improving the operational performance.Based on UFI's demand forecasting system and its pilot implementation,this paper effectively enhances the operating efficiency of UFI,and on the other hand can provide reference for management decisions of other companies.For enterprises in transition,in order to further reduce the cost of enterprises and improve the competitiveness of enterprises,it is possible to construct a relatively complete demand forecasting system in the direction of demand forecasting management,thereby improving the accuracy of demand forecasting,reducing operating costs,and improving the performance and profit.