Study On The Method Of Procurement Demand Forcasting In H Power Station Directional Service Spare Parts

Power station service industry,as a rising new industry in recent years,is developing very rapidly.As one of the core businesses of power station service industry,Power station service spare parts are valued by almost all enterprises engaged in power station industry.How to predict reliably and steadily the demand of H power station service spare parts so as to coordinate upstream and downstream of supply chain and achieve a reasonable arrangement of materials into production and to ensure timely delivery of products has become a critical factor to every enterprise in Improving the efficiency of logistics operation and reducing costs,meanwhile gaining market confidence and expanding market share.Therefore,it is urgent for us to have a study on a kind of forecasting model suitable for the development of enterprises for the demand forecast of H power station service spare parts,thus doing some useful exploration and reference for the rapid development of power station service industry.The paper starts a research on procurement demand forecasting around the H power station service spare parts.After the analysis of the problems encountered in the process of procurement demand forecasting in H power generation service spare parts,this paper in order to solve the problem first selects the directional service spare parts as the research object of the paper.Secondly,it build a model for prediction by combining with the demand factors of the directional service spare parts.The modeling process adopts the method of time series analysis and curve fitting,and the basic demand forecasting model is established based on the annual demand growth rate function of spare parts and the seasonal monthly demand function.Through the basic demand forecasting model,the paper calculated the error between the predicted results and the actual historical data.By using the method of interval estimation and point estimation in statistical inference,the probability distribution of final demand forecast result can be deduced by analyzing the distribution of error.With the probability distribution the final prediction is easy to be found.Finally,the exponential smoothing method and the expert modeler are used to compare with the prediction model by inspecting the reliability of the prediction trend and the stability of the prediction results,the results show that the prediction model of this paper shows higher reliability and stability in the process of the annual demand forecasting of the selected spare parts in 2016.In the end,the paper combined with the actual situation of A enterprises,it compared the new forecasting methods with the old one.The results also show that the prediction method provided by the paper can effectively reduce the average shortage level of A Enterprises.In practical applications,this demand forecasting model is of guiding significance for the forecast of demand in each month of 2016.The research of this paper provides a practical case for the procurement demand forecast of H power station directional service spare parts in A enterprises,which is helpful for enterprises to improve their logistics service level.