Evaluation Of The Value Of Gambling Agreement Based On SV Model,taking Zeus Entertainment Company As An Example

The difficulty of enterprise financing is one of the main problems restricting the social and economic development of our country at present.Especially for the start-up enterprises,the demand for capital is larger than that of the general companies.The banks usually allocate the loan quota to the state-owned enterprises and large enterprises,and the start-up enterprises can only get fewer loan quotas,thus causing serious imbalance in credit rationing.It is even more difficult for these start-ups to choose the way of listing to finance,and they are often unable to meet the requirements of listing because of the restrictions of various factors.It is because of these factors that venture capital has become an effective financing method for SMEs.As an agreement to effectively protect the interests of investors,betting agreement is widely used in the process of venture capital.This paper takes Zeus Entertainment Company as the research object.As a unicorn company,it has acquired many companies in many industries after listing,and completed gambling through extension mergers and acquisitions.The acquisition price is mostly high premium.In the company's many acquisition cases,select Zeus Entertainment Company's acquisition of Fantasy Yueyou,Heyun Media's gambling case,and make an empirical analysis of the value evaluation of the gambling agreement,in order to provide reference for emerging enterprises in the evaluation of the gambling agreement treaty.Based on SV model,this paper collects the closing price data of Zeus Entertainment Company from July 1,2014 to November 27,2018,and converts it into logarithmic return rate as the research object.Four SV models are used to fit the logarithmic return rate of Zeus Entertainment Company's Stock Price.The Bayesian estimates of model parameters under MCMC method are calculated by WinBugssoftware,and compared.Compared with the parameter estimates of the four models,the SV model with the best fitting effect is judged.In order to improve the accuracy and scientificalness of model fitting,DIC criterion is added as the restriction condition,comprehensive comparative analysis is made to select the model with the best fitting effect,and the estimated parameters are obtained to calculate the theoretical value of the agreement and the risk price of the agreement.The results show that the SV-T model and the SV-MT model have a good fitting degree to the actual data through the analysis of the parameters.Through further analysis of the DIC value of the model,it is found that the simulation effect of the SV-T model is the best under the MCMC method.Finally,the SV-T model is selected to fit the logarithmic return rate of Zeus Entertainment Company's closing price.In addition,it is found that the logarithmic return rate of Zeus Entertainment Company has strong volatility persistence,which indicates that the fluctuation of financial data is clustered,reflecting the aggregation effect of volatility;the logarithmic return rate of Zeus Entertainment Company is correlated with volatility,but it can not simply judge the positive and negative correlation based on the positive and negative values;from the comparison of the Bayesian estimates of the degree of freedom,it can be explained that Zeus Entertainment Company does have the typical characteristics of financial data spikes and thick tails,which is different from the standard normal distribution.The MC error value can be used to judge the parameters of each model.The accuracy of the estimation results is relatively high,which shows that the model has a good fitting effect on the entertainment of God.The calculation result shows that there are pricing deviations in Zeus Entertainment Company's gambling agreement.The theoretical value is about 1.931 billion yuan,the actual price is about4.159 billion yuan,and the risk price is 1.930 billion yuan.This quantitative method can be used as a reference for other enterprises when they sign the betting agreement in the future,so that the enterprises involved in the betting agreement no longer bear the unrealistic price because of the asymmetric information of the price of the agreement.