Mispricing Of Capital Market?Management Capability And Management Profitability Forecast Deviation

A series of economic historical facts,such as the Japanese economic bubble bursting in the 1980 s and 1990 s,the Mexican financial crisis in the 1990 s,and the financial tsunami that swept the world in the first decade of the 21 st century.The series of theoretical logics represented by the representatives have proved that in the capital market,the combination of the emotions of investors' ups and downs and the macro and microeconomic backgrounds makes the stock prices of listed companies deviate from the real ones for a long time and systematically.Corporate value has led to the phenomenon of mispricing in the capital market(Hua Guiru et al.,2010,2011;Guan Wei et al.,2017).When the management predicts the company's future earnings,it will inevitably be affected by the internal and external environment in which the company is located(Ye Yingmei,2016).As the external environment in which the capital is located,the capital market can not only convey untrue corporate value and information on future profit trends to management,but also influence management's behavioral decisions(Stein,1996;Baker,etc.).,2003;Polk et al.,2009;Hua Guiru et al.,2011;Huang Hongbin et al.,2014).This may cause some degree of disruption to the process of management's disclosure of earnings forecasts,resulting in deviations in its published earnings forecasts.Although the external environment of the company will cause a lot of disruption to the management,the management's ability determines whether it can still keep a clear head,with an objective vision and a calm attitude,through superior ability,as much as possible Real and profitable forecasting information,thus making less biased earnings forecasts(Trueman,1986;Francis et al,2008;Bamber et al,2010;Zhao Hui et al,2017;Hambrick et al,1984;Xu Ningning,2017;Li Hong et al,2018).This paper analyzes the A-share data of listed companies in China's Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets from 2013 to 2017,and uses four methods of literature search,theoretical analysis,comparative research and empirical regression to explore the wrong pricing of capital markets.The relationship between management profit forecast deviation and management ability.First,the paper defines the basic concepts of capital market mispricing,management earnings forecast bias and management capacity.Secondly,according to EMH effective market theory and stock price signal transmission mechanism,capital market error pricing theory and the theory of high-level echelon theory and management's motivation to release profit forecast,the author deeply explores the cause and effect between capital market mispricing and management profit forecast deviation.Association.Then,the capital market error pricing is subdivided into the stock overvaluation group and the stock undervaluation group,respectively,to study their different impacts on the management earnings forecast deviation.Third,the introduction of management capacity to explore whether it will significantly inhibit the relationship between capital market mispricing and management earnings forecast bias,and further determine the logical relationship between the three.Finally,based on the research results of capital market mispricing,management ability and management profit forecast deviation and the actual situation of this paper,the metric variables and main models are determined.The conclusions of this paper indicate that:(1)In China's current capital market,mispricing has indeed had a significant negative impact on the process of management's disclosure of earnings forecast information,and led to deviations in its profit forecast,which is reflected in capital market mispricing.There is a significant positive correlation with the management's profit forecast deviation,which verifies the capital market mispricing theory.(2)When the stock price of a listed company is overvalued,the relationship between capital market mispricing and management earnings forecast deviation is not significant;when the listed company's stock price is undervalued,the two have a significant positive correlation.This proves the capital market mispricing theory,the motive theory of the management's release of profit forecasting and the high-level echelon theory.(3)After introducing the regulatory power of regulatory variables,the research in this paper also found that high-capacity management significantly inhibits the relationship between capital market mispricing and management profit forecast deviation compared with low-capacity management.Capital market error pricing theory,management's motivation theory for releasing profit forecasts and high-level echelon theory.The innovations of this paper are as follows:(1)A new research perspective: The discussion of the main factors affecting the management's profit forecast deviation is based on the internal characteristics of the enterprise and the management's own attributes,but few people from the external market.From the perspective of whether the mispricing of the capital market will lead to management profit forecast bias,there are few specific ways to further study the impact.This article is a new way to explore the causal link between capital market mispricing and management earnings forecast bias from a new perspective of the external market.(2)Innovative research content: After combing the literature on the mispricing of capital market,management profit forecast bias and management ability,this paper believes that there may be some between the above three The causal associations found and the relationship between them.Therefore,this paper studies the logical relationship between the above three,which has certain theoretical value and practical significance.