Macroeconomic Structure And Trends Based On Statistical Analysis

Since 1978,the Chinese economy has kept a steady and rapid growth,the economic aggregate has continued to rise,and has become the world's second largest economy.As far as China's overall development is concerned,the state of economic development is still considerable,but there are still differences among provinces and cities.Investigating the development of a country or region cannot only look at the indicator of GDP,but it is necessary to comprehensively implement the country or region.This paper works on the study of economic structure balance and economic trend forecast,and evaluates the economic situation of 31 provinces and cities.Through the consideration of economic factors,this paper evaluates the economic development status mainly from the six aspects of market,government,society,science and technology,ecological environment and internationalization.The six comprehensive aspects were analyzed by factor analysis,and the six-member comprehensive scores of each province and city were obtained.The scores were normalized and visualized.In the understanding of the economic equilibrium structure of various provinces and cities in China,the provinces and cities have a certain control over the overall development of the current stage,and study the future economic development trend.This paper selects the GDP increase as an important evaluation index of economic trend,uses the interpretable gradient tree to predict the growth rate of GDP,and compares the XGBoost model prediction results with the prediction results of the neural network model.Mainly got the following conclusions:(1)According to the six-yuan comprehensive score of each province and city,and combined with the six-member average score coefficient,China's provinces and cities can be roughly divided into three categories: fully balanced,general balanced,and balanced.The provinces and cities with complete equilibrium are mainly Guangdong,Jiangsu,Shandong,Shanghai,Beijing,and Zhejiang.The general equilibrium provinces and cities include Fujian,Sichuan,Hubei,Tianjin,Chongqing,Liaoning,and Anhui.The remaining provinces and cities may have lower than average indicators.More,so it is divided into balanced lacking type.All provinces and cities can take corresponding development measures according to the characteristics of their own development.(2)By comparing the XGBoost model with the neural network model,the results show that the XGBoost model is superior to the neural network model in GDP growth prediction and has a good short-term prediction effect.Therefore,in the short-term forecast of the GDP growth rate of each province,the XGBoost model can be used for forecasting.