A Study On The The Spatial Spillover Effect Of Local Government Debt Risk On Regional Financial Risk

In recent years,with the expansion of local government debt,the debt ratio of local governments has been rising.Local government debt risk is a fiscal expenditure risk.It affects regional financial risks through a certain mechanism of action and promotes the formation and spread of regional financial risks.The increasingly prominent local government debt risk has seriously affected the healthy development of local economy and regional finance.The purpose of this thesis is to explore the theoretical mechanism of the role of local government debt risk in regional financial risk,and to analyze the spillover effect of local government debt risk on regional financial risk from a spatial perspective.On the basis of reading relevant literatures,this paper sorts out the connotation,causes and classification of local government debt risks,summarizes the connotation,causes and related risk communication theories of regional financial risks.Based on relevant research literature,economic theory and reality are,from the spatial perspective,the mechanism theory of local government debt risk affecting regional financial risk is summarized,and the empirical research on the spatial spillover effect of debt risk is summarized.Based on the provinces in 2008-2017 Data,from the three dimensions of debt scale,debt structure and economic finance,select 8 relevant local government debt risk indicators,and select 14 relevant regional financial risk indicators from the three aspects of regional economy,regional finance and external shock,and use entropy rights.The TOPSIS method constructs the local government debt risk index and the regional financial risk index respectively,and analyzes the current situation of local government debt risk and regional financial risk.The spatial measurement method is used to explore the spatial spillover effect of local government debt risk on regional financial risk.The Moran index and LISA agglomeration map should be used to test the spatial correlation of the two;the local government debt risk index is used as the explanatory variable,the regional financial risk index is the explanatory variable,and the economic development level,urbanization level,government behavior,Variables such as industrial structure and financial development level are used as control variables.Based on China's provincial panel data,a spatial Dubin model is established to conduct empirical research.The results show that:(1)local government debt risk and regional financial risk are characterized by increasing east,middle and west in the geographical distribution;(2)local government debt risk has obvious positive spillover effect on regional financial risk in the region,the spillover effect of regional financial risks in neighboring regions is not significant;(3)the spillover effects of local government debt risk on regional financial risks in the eastern,central and western regions are weakened in turn;(4)government behavior will enhance spillover effects,while industrial structure and urbanization and the level of financial development will inhibit the spillover effects of local government debt risks.Under the conclusions and enlightenments of the above research,we propose targeted policy recommendations,it is recommended to deepen the reform of the fiscal system,improve the local government debt supervision mechanism,conduct cross-domain cooperation on government debt management,establish local government debt risk and regional financial risk early warning mechanism,strengthen the supervision of regional financial institutions,and promote regional coordinated development and industrial structure upgrading.