The Analysis On The Financialization In International Commodity Prices

International commodities are the most upstream products reflecting the industrial base.Its demand and supply fluctuates condition,even price change can affect whole economy system directly.So the fluctuation of international bulk commodity price is widely concerned.Since September 2008,international commodity prices have been exceptionally volatile.In the recent rounds(2008.09-2009.09?2013.12-2016.05)of price fluctuations,futures investment,hedge arbitrage,quantitative easing of the US Dollar and other factors have become more and more significant,and the financiallization factors have been increasingly strengthened.As a large commodity demand country,China needs to analyze these factors to predict the price trend and make trading decisions.Under this background,the research of various financial factors that affect commodity price fluctuations in the price direction and degree,and analysis of the influence mechanism,help to understand deeply the commodities with the financial properties,help to deepen understanding of the factors affecting commodity prices,which has important reference value for the actual investment operation in the commodity market.Therefore,a general equilibrium model based on futures market is established on the basis of domestic and foreign literature review on the factors influencing commodity prices.In this model,families are set as "speculative" factors.By analyzing the trading behaviors of producers,dealers,households and investors in the futures market,financial factors(speculative factors,interest rates,and returns on other assets)affecting their behaviors and influencing mechanisms are found out.Then,based on the analysis of real data on the intuitive changes of financial factors and commodity prices,it is found that these financial factors are related to the trend of commodity prices.In the part of empirical research,GARCH model is used to analyze the overall influence trend of financial factors on various commodities.VAR model is used to observe the dynamic feedback relationship between various economic variables,so as to further analyze the reaction of commodity market under external shocks.The results show that speculation brings a positive impact,while the dollar brings a positive impact.The impact of other asset returns on commodity prices varies with different stages.Compared with the other three factors,the impact of interest rate is not significant.Therefore,non-commercial holders enter the futures market to earn income,and changes in the demand for futures positions will make futures prices fluctuate;The dollar acts as both a trading channel and an asset class to influence commodity price movements;The portfolio held by investors connects the financial market and commodity market,and the allocation of investors' funds between the two markets will make the changes in the two markets interact with each other,so that the fluctuations of the financial market will bring about the fluctuations of commodity prices.Finally,according to the conclusion,this paper puts forward some policy Suggestions,such as establishing standard effective futures market,strengthening effective supervision of futures market,and improving pricing power of domestic commodities.