| Since the abolition of housing physical distribution in 1998,the real estate industry has developed rapidly and the prices have risen rapidly.Since the real estate industry is a capitalintensive industry,the amount of funds in various sources of real estate development has also been growing rapidly.As the rapid rise in housing prices affects people's livelihood on the one hand,and may also lead to a real estate bubble on the other hand,which in turn triggers a financial crisis,the Chinese government has been actively regulating the real estate market in order to stabilize housing prices.At the same time,there are significant regional differences in the real estate market.Therefore,discussing the impact of real estate development funding sources on housing prices and their regional differences will help to provide more basis for the government to implement real estate regulation policies.The existing literature on the impact of real estate development funding sources on housing prices has the following characteristics: firstly,many scholars focus on discussing the relationship between a certain source of funds and housing prices.Secondly,few literatures have broken down the sources of funds to obtain more accurate data on personal mortgage loans,bank loans,and own funds to study their impact on housing prices.Thirdly,a few studies from the source of funds focus on the time series data of a city,and less consideration of regional differences.Based on the theoretical theory of bargaining theory,credit-driven real estate bubble theory and supply and demand theory,this paper analyzes the three impact paths of real estate development funding sources on housing prices.Firstly,the increase of various real estate development funding sources strengthens the dominant position of real estate developers and sellers,thereby enhancing bargaining power,leading to the promotion of housing prices;secondly,bank credits and sales remittance funds from sources of real estate development funds transfer some of the risks to banks or homebuyers,making real estate enterprises more risk-oriented and over-investment,and the land supply has certain rigidity,which leads to the rise of land prices,and the rise of land prices finally promotes the rise of housing prices;thirdly,the increase in the sources of various real estate development funds inhibited the rise in housing prices by promoting the increase in the supply of commercial housing,but its inhibitory effect was greatly weakened by the lack of flexibility in real estate supply.Then it analyzes the trajectory and characteristics of various real estate development funds and housing prices,and compares the changes of the two trajectories to find that the other funds of non-personal mortgage loans,personal mortgage loans and real estate development loans are more similar to housing prices.Finally,based on the panel data of 35 large and medium-sized cities in 2006-2016,the dynamic panel model was established to estimate the source of various real estate development funds and the impact of various fund sources on housing prices,and 35 large and medium-sized cities are divided into three regions: east,middle and west,to analyze the regional differences of the above effects.This paper draws the following four conclusions: firstly,the real estate development loans and sales repayments have a significant role in promoting housing prices,and the effect of sales repayment on housing prices is greater than the promotion of the real estate development loans on housing prices,while the impacts of elf-raised funds on housing prices is not significant.Secondly,the role of buyers in promoting housing prices is greater than the role of bank credit funds in promoting housing prices.Thirdly,the real estate demand side loan(personal mortgage loan)promotes the housing price more than the real estate supply side loan(real estate development loan).Fourth,the impact of real estate development funding sources on housing prices presents significant regional differences,the sales repayments in large and medium-sized cities in the east have a greater effect on housing prices than the national sales of return funds on housing prices;the impact of real estate development funds on housing prices is basically the same as that in the country;the impact of real estate development loans on housing prices in large and medium-sized cities in western China is not significant,and the impact of self-raised funds on housing prices is very significant.Finally,based on the above conclusions,it proposes policy recommendations such as phasing out the commercial housing pre-sale system,stabilizing expectations,regulating the supply and demand side of real estate credit and sub-regional regulation. |
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