Research On The Factors Influencing Default Risk Of Credit Debt And Precaution Countermeasures

Since the establishment of Chinese bond market,there has been no material breach,and it was not until the appearance of the first default bond,"11 Chao Ri Bond" in 2014,that it completely broke the long-standing myth of bond market.It has caused investors to think about the normal and healthy operation of the bond market.Since 2018,under the macro environment of "deleveraging and strict supervision",the three main channels of corporate refinancing have been tightened at the same time,and bond defaults have occurred frequently.And unlike in the past,some companies with good financial conditions and higher ratings have exceeded market expectations in the current wave of defaults,and rating agencies have also been seriously questioned,drawing attention from the market.Based on this background,this paper selects CEFC Shanghai bond default case to study the influencing factors of default risk in the credit bond market in 2018,aiming at seeking countermeasures against default risk from the point of view of the company,rating agency and the investor,which is of great significance for the healthy and stable development of the whole bond market in China.This paper is divided into three parts.On the basis of the definition of the relevant concept of bond default,the first part summarizes the general influencing factors of default risk of credit bonds and the adverse effects of the accumulation of default risk.The second part combs the characteristics of the default tide and rating problems exposed in the wave of defaults from the realistic point of view,and selects CEFC Shanghai Bond default case,which is the first default case of Chinese initial main principal rating of AAA grade,then introduce the basic situation of the case.In the third part,through the in-depth analysis of the case,it is found that the external influencing factors of CEFC Shanghai default mainly include macro-environment increasing financing pressure,large fluctuating crude oil price,and frequent spread of negative news.The internal factors include aggressive investment style,single financing channel,and the financial situation is not optimistic.Then,using the Z-score model,we find that the rating agencies lack the ability to warn the credit risk of CEFC Shanghai.Through theoretical analysis and case study,this paper mainly draws the following conclusions: first,slowing economic growth,heavy liquidity pressure in the industry,over-expansion of the company and chaos in the internal control and management system are all important factors affecting the default risk of credit bonds in 2018;second,the poor independence of rating agencies,the false high rating results,adjustment lag and other issues make the principal rating of debt default risk warning ability is poor.Finally,according to the above conclusions and combined with the actual situation,the paper puts forward some specific policy suggestions on how to prevent default risk from three angles: issuing subject,rating agency and market investor.The main innovative work of this paper is: on the one hand,through combing the default companies from 2014 to 2018,the default group enterprises and the non-default group enterprises are selected for comparative analysis,and the key financial factors affecting the default risk of enterprises are summarized.On the other hand,this paper uses the latest bond default data and cases to deeply study the influencing factors of the bond default risk in 2018,and puts forward specific preventive measures for different subjects,which is more timely and targeted.