Research On The Influence Of Weibo-based Network Public Opinion On Huayi Brothers' Stock Price Fluctuation

With the information storm brought by big data changing the current way of life,work and thinking profoundly,human beings are gradually entering the era of mobile internet.Big data on the Internet presents the characteristics of mass,diversity,high speed and variability,which provides a new data source for quantitative investment.Throughout the world,the Internet big data field under quantitative investment is undoubtedly a new research direction and hot field of quantitative investment.Modern financial market theory usually assumes that every investor in the market is completely rational,but the real financial market does not support this hypothesis,especially in the A-share market,where the proportion of individual investors is high,short selling is limited,and stock price anomalies multiply.In this context,behavioral finance has emerged as a new force,which is analyzed and studied from many perspectives,such as people's behavioral characteristics,investment psychology and so on.With the help of micro-blog platform,this paper tries to link the network public opinion data with the stock price fluctuation of Huayi Brothers,excavate the relevant law of the stock price fluctuation of Huayi Brothers from the change of public opinion data,which will help business managers to evaluate the impact of network public opinion on their operation intuitively based on the dimension of micro-blog,and then take more targeted measures to deal with it.It also helps investors to better predict the trend of stock price changes.General basic data,macro data and asset market data are unable to capture investors' mood changes.Internet public opinion data can describe investors' emotions in a timely manner.Especially in today's era,information technology and network platforms are changing with each passing day.More and more small andmedium-sized investors rely on the network more and more,trying to get more information from it to make investment decisions.At the same time,through different network communities to express their views on investment,such as: Weibo,Weixin,stock bars,stock forums and so on.Through text data mining,emotional analysis,user behavior analysis and other methods,we can get different dimensions of public opinion data,such as investors' attention to different topics,investors' emotional tendencies to different events,the correlation between different events and so on.Among the numerous data sources,the network public opinion based on micro-blog represents people's attention to a certain subject.This paper combines this attention with emotional analysis to construct the investor sentiment index,in order to study the relationship between the change of public opinion and the fluctuation of Huayi Brothers stock price.Firstly,this paper uses Python to crawl the stock comment text on Sina Weibo,constructs an emotional classifier to analyze the text by using the method of feature classification,and constructs an investor sentiment index based on the analysis results.In order to study the relationship between online public opinion based on microblog and stock price fluctuation of Huayi Brothers,this paper establishes VAR model for sentiment index and stock price and quantity index respectively,and carries out Granger causality test.It is found that investor sentiment index is the Granger cause of stock return of Huayi Brothers,but there is no relationship between the sentiment index and the volume change of stock exchange rate.Ranger causality;on the other hand,this paper establishes a stock yield prediction model for Huayi Brothers,and finds that the model after adding public opinion indicators can better explain the changes in stock prices,indicating that the development of China's securities market is not yet mature.