Household-level Livelihood Vulnerability Assessment Of Farmers And Herders In The Tibetan Plateau Under Climate Change

The "Targeted Measures in Poverty Alleviation(Jin Zhun Fu Ping)Projects" in China,which has entered a decisive period.At the time when the task of getting rid of poverty in 2020 is about to be completed,how to ensure poverty alleviation results,avoid the return of poor farmers and herders and ensure the sustainable development of their livelihoods will be the focus of poverty reduction in the future.Vulnerability is an important feature of poverty and one of the main reasons for returning to poverty.So Livelihood vulnerability research provides a new way of thinking about reducing poverty.Many studies on the livelihood vulnerability in China have gradually shifted from the macro scale to the micro scale.And the macro-scale vulnerability research is of great significance to the sustainable development of the region.However,focusing only on regional vulnerability is insufficient.It is also necessary to study micro-scale livelihood vulnerability to gain a deeper understanding of the distribution and causes of vulnerable populations,and it is helpful to propose more targeted policies.Therefore,it is especially important to conduct the household-level livelihood vulnerability assessment in typical areas.The Tibetan Plateau(TP),has a unique and complex climate.It is a typical ecologically fragile area and one of the poverty areas in China.Permafrost degradation,vegetation deterioration,and many extreme natural disasters(droughts,snowstorms,floods,winds,hail,etc.)aggravate the vulnerability of local farmers' and herders' livelihoods.At present,the research on the livelihood vulnerability of the TP is mainly qualitative,and some studies focus on the vulnerability at the regional level,and there are relatively few quantitative studies at the household level.In view of this,this paper selects three typical agricultural and pastoral areas on the TP(i.e.,the Zamtang County of Sichuan Province,the Hehuang Valley of Qinghai Province,and the Pumqu River Basin of Tibet Autonomous Region)as study area.Using the 1031 field survey samples and meteorological site data,a household-level livelihood vulnerability assessment index system is constructed in the dimension of "sensitivityadaptive capacity" based on the sustainable livelihood analysis framework and the vulnerability framework.Then,the distribution and characteristics of high-vulnerability households were quantitatively analyzed.And the reasons for vulnerability are explored from the perspective of family and region.Policy recommendations are provided to reduce the livelihood vulnerability of farmers and herders and to achieve sustainable development of their livelihoods.The main conclusions of this study are as follows:(1)Climate change and the perceptions of farmers and herdersThe data from meteorological stations showed that from 1988 to 2017,the annual average temperature had a trend of increasing each county or district.The change of annual rainfall was inconsistent and fluctuating,and the whole study area showed a trend of increase.According to the data of the survey sample,most farmers and herders thought that the temperature increased,the precipitation decreased,and the air humidity decreased.The climatic conditions are characterized by warm and dry conditions.The frequency of drought increased significantly in most areas,and the frequency of frost and snow disasters decreased.Therefore,the farmers' capacity of perceptions of temperature is better than precipitation.(2)Sensitivity characterizationSensitivity characterization of the study area mainly includes the changes of crop yield,livestock numbers,grassland resources,medicinal resources,and population health.The crop yield,livestock numbers,grassland and medicinal resources of most households showed a decreasing trend in the Zamtang County and the Hehuang Valley,while the changes were not obvious in the Pumqu River Basin.The main reasons for the decrease of crop yield are climate change,disasters,and lack of agricultural labor.And the decrease of livestock numbers,is mainly due to the reduction of grassland resources,serious livestock diseases,and the reduction of labour.In terms of population health,rheumatoid arthritis is the highest incidence of disease in the Hehuang Valley and Pumqu River Basin,and there are more patients with Kashin-Beck disease in the Zamtang County.(3)Characteristics and distribution of high-vulnerability householdsThe 1031 samples were classified into three categories: high-,medium-and low-vulnerability households,accounting for 26.96%,50.24% and 22.80% respectively.High-vulnerability families have the highest values of sensitivity and exposure index,but the lowest value of adaptive capacity index.High-vulnerability households have the following characteristics: much loss of crop yield and labor capacity,greatly dependent on natural resources,lowest livelihood assets,insufficient of government subsidies and irrigation rates,and their houses are far from hospitals.Highly-vulnerability families are all distributed in the Zamtang County and the Hehuang Valley,while the families in the Pumqu River Basin show moderate and low vulnerability.(4)The regional differences of livelihood vulnerabilityThe mean values of farmers' and herders' livelihood vulnerability index were the Zamtang County>the Hehuang Valley>the Pumqu River Basin.The main reasons included:(1)the mean values of the exposure index and the sensitivity index of the Zamtang County and the Hehuang Valley were higher than those of the Pumqu River Basin.By analyzing the relationship between exposure and sensitivity,it is found that exposure(especially extreme meteorological disasters)had an adverse(or potential)impact on the livelihood sensitivity of farmers and herders,which in turn affected the household's livelihood vulnerability.(2)the mean value of the adaptive capacity index of the Pumqu River Basin was higher than that of the Zamtang County's and the Hehuang Valley.In particular,the Pumqu River Basin had a better of subsidies and infrastructure.The district is located on the border between China and Nepal,so there are a large number of subsidies for border and Everest's protection.The average irrigation rate is about 92%,and many villages are close to the infirmary.Finally,the paper analyzed the relationship between altitude and vulnerability.It is found that high altitude will deepen the family's livelihood vulnerability to a certain extent.However,the vulnerability value of Pumqu River Basin(4145.32~4616.04 m above sea level)is lower than that of the Zamtang County(3350.00~3496.00 m above sea level)and the Hehuang Valley(2639.92~3201.55 m above sea level).It indicates that when the government invests more funds and builds a good infrastructure,the adaptability of farmers and herders will be improved,and finally the disadvantages of high-altitude geographical location will be overcome.The paper concluded with policy recommendations on strengthening climate change and natural disaster risk management,improving education and professional skills training,ensuring the stability of the safety net,and adapting industries to local conditions.