The Impact Of Credit Supply On Consumption Growth

With China's economy entering a new normal,the role of consumption in promoting economic growth is increasing.At the same time,indirect financing is the main financing channel,which makes credit supply important in macro-control.With the expansion of the scale of consumer finance and the change of residents' consumption consciousness,the central bank can use credit instruments to regulate consumer credit of financial institutions and guide residents' consumption by means of consumer financial instruments to achieve economic growth.Because of the consumer objects of consumer credit with different maturities,it is necessary to study the impact of consumer finance on consumption from the perspective of maturity structure.Therefore,this paper chooses the term structure of consumer finance as a research perspective,examines how credit supply guides the term structure of consumer credit,and the impact of the term structure of consumer loans on consumption,with a view to providing some reference and reference for the formulation and implementation of consumer financial policies.Firstly,this paper analyses the development path of China's consumer finance in stages,and summarizes its development characteristics in terms of size,structural change and policy background.As consumer finance has the characteristics of rapid development,great potential for development,policy-oriented,monopolistic development of commercial banks,the importance of consumer finance in credit channels is increasing.Based on these characteristics,this paper examines the impact of credit supply changes on the term structure of consumer finance.The empirical results show that when credit supply expands,the growth rate of medium-term and long-term consumer loans is higher than that of short-term consumer loans,which makes the proportion of medium-term and long-term consumer loans increase;when credit supply is tight,the contraction rate of medium-term and long-term consumer loans is faster than that of short-term consumer loans,which makes their proportion decrease.The change of the term structure of consumer credit caused by the change of credit supply can affect the growth rate of consumption: because the effect of consumer credit on consumption is different in different periods,a high proportion of medium-term and long-term consumer loans can stimulate consumption growth,while the decrease of the proportion of medium-term and long-term consumer loans caused by credit contraction will restrain consumption growth.And the effect is persistent.In view of the above empirical results,the following suggestions are put forward for the formulation of macroeconomic policies:(1)The government should pay more attention to the term structure of consumer credit.When stimulating consumption and promoting economic growth through consumer finance channels,we should pay attention to the term structure of consumer finance besides the total amount.(2)Expanding the field of consumer financial services.Expanding consumer finance from the two aspects of term structure and consumer object will not only help the government to regulate consumption more finely,but also meet the needs of consumers.(3)Improve the social security system.It can improve the channel of the influence of credit supply cycle on the term structure of consumer finance,and play a better role in consumption.