| Since the 21 st century,the process of economic globalization and regional economic centralization has developed rapidly,and the rules and systems of world trade are about to be re-established.Under the pressure of weak international demand and increased labor costs,,accelerating the implementation of the free trade zone strategy is an objective requirement for China to adapt to the new trend of economic globalization,and is also an inevitable choice for comprehensively deepening reforms and building a new open economic system.At present,China has successively established three batches of 11 free trade zones.As a window for China to deepen reform,expand opening-up and display a brand-new international image,free trade zones must not become hotbeds for money laundering,terrorist financing,weapons of mass destruction proliferation financing,tax evasion and corruption.To study the scale change of money laundering and its impact in China's provinces and cities with free trade zones can not only enable them to establish an anti-money laundering management structure similar to the “risk-based” proposed by the FATF,but also invest limited anti-money laundering resources in the areas and industries where money laundering activities are most rampant and the risk of money laundering is the greatest.It is also a realistic choice to effectively combat the increasingly rampant money laundering and terrorist financing activities.In 2013,FATF issued guidelines for risk assessment of national(regional)money laundering and terrorist financing.The threat of money laundering is defined as four aspects: the scale of money laundering produced annually by a country(region),the scale of money laundering flowing to other countries,the scale of money laundering remaining in the country and the scale of money laundering flowing into the country by other countries.Following the principle of FATF evaluation guidelines,this paper studies the scale of money laundering in relevant provinces and municipalities,and estimates the scale of money laundering in China from 2000 to 2015 by using Walker model,which measures the scale of money laundering based on the upstream crime data of money laundering.The study found that in 2000,the total amount of money laundering generated by sample provinces and municipalities was 3.523 billion US dollars,with an average of 352.3 billion US dollars,while in 2015,the total amount of money laundering in each province and municipality was 82.715 billion US dollars,with an average amount of 8.272 billion US dollars.During the study period,the provinces and cities produced a total of 404.627 billion US dollars in money laundering.Among the seven predicate crimes of money laundering,fraud and drug related cases produce the largest scale of money laundering,while other crimes produce less scale.Firstly,this paper identifies two areas of the largest scale flow of money launderingfinance and foreign trade system.Through the establishment of PVAR model,this paper empirically studies the dynamic relationship between foreign trade,financial development and the scale of money laundering,aiming at adhering to the principle of "risk-based",putting our limited anti-money laundering resources into the areas where money laundering is the most popular,and providing relevant suggestions for effectively promoting the development of antimoney laundering in China.Through the research,we find that financial development and money laundering scale are mutually causal,and they have a negative impact on each other.Foreign trade is the Granger cause of the scale of money laundering,and has a weak negative impact on it.The scale of money laundering has no direct impact on foreign trade,but has a certain positive and indirect impact.Finally,based on the research results on the scale and influence of money laundering,this paper proposes relevant policy recommendations with a view to contributing to the development of China's anti-money laundering cause. |
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