The Research On Corporate Financial Risk Pre-warning System From The Perspective Of Diversification Strategy

In recent years,domestic economy has entered a new normal state,the traditional single business model can not meet the long-term sustainable development goal of enterprises,so a lot of enterprises begin to adopt diversified development strategies gradually.Diversification not only provides opportunities for enterprises,but also increases financial risk for enterprises.Some financial crises are caused by the blind diversification.In order to reduce the financial difficulties and maintain the stability of the market environment in China,the author makes an empirical study on the financial risk pre-warning model of diversify enterprises through the study of the existing academic achievements.The listed companies that carry out the diversification strategy in China are selected as research samples,170 non ST companies are compared with 10 ST companies,and 25 indexes of 2011-2015 years are selected to analyze them.There are both traditional financial indicators and non-financial indicators that reflect the degree of diversification.It also uses T test and factor analysis to carry out the analysis.After screening indicators,we establish a financial risk pre-warning model through logistic regression analysis,hoping to analyze the financial risk situation of enterprises.After the establishment of the financial risk pre-warning model,the accuracy of each year is tested,and the data of 2016 are used to predict the accuracy of the model,and the accuracy of the model is about75%.Then compare its accuracy with the traditional multivariate model,it is proved that its pre-warning capability is stronger than the traditional multivariate model.It is found that the profitability,operation ability,solvency and diversification of enterprises can reflect the financial risks of enterprises.The diversification of enterprises is in direct proportion to the financial risks that they face.The more the number of industries of an enterprise involved,the greater the financial risk it faces.The profitability,operation ability,and solvency indicators are inversely proportional to the financial risks.