Research On The Influencing Factors Of Enterprises' Motives For Exchange Rate Arbitrage

In recent years,the pace of Chinese enterprises going out has accelerated,and the total amount of foreign investment has shown rapid growth.Since President Xi Jinping proposed the“One Belt,One Road" strategic concept in 2013,under the leadership of the government,Chinese enterprises have gradually concentrated their investment horizons on countries along the "Belt and Road" and become a new field of Chinese foreign investment.However,at present,Chinese companies have insufficient experience in overseas investment and are still in the primary exploration stage.While the "One Belt,One Road" strategy needs to be further advanced,we can find that some enterprises choose investment behaviors in countries along the "Belt and Road" to develop the market.However,due to the existence of international capital flows and the imbalance of the host country's exchange rate,For uncertain investment markets,corporate investors may be speculative.The countries along the "Belt and Road" are small-currency countries,the financial market is not perfect,the interest rate and exchange rate parity system and the foreign exchange market are not fully developed.Our investors will identify the opportunity profit space and use the exchange rate to convert the entity investment into speculation.behavior.This paper discusses the investment behavior of enterprises along the "Belt and Road" countries from the perspective of exchange rate.When Chinese corporate investors make investment decisions in the countries along the "Belt and Road",they need to clarify their own investment motives and exchange rate speculation motives.Based on this,this paper analyzes the current situation of Chinese enterprises'investment in the countries along the "Belt and Road",and discusses the impact of China's investment behavior along the "Belt and Road" countries from the perspective of the impact of exchange rate on investment,and proposes China's "One Belt and One Road"."The investment motives of countries along the route are influenced by exchange rate speculation.The first part shows that China has a real investment motive and speculative motive for the investment in the countries along the "Belt and Road"and analyzes the factors affecting the speculative expectations of the enterprise.The second part is based on the conversion relationship between the RMB exchange rate and the host country exchange rate,and further studies the RMB exchange rate conversion efficiency for enterprises.The suppression of physical investment and the strengthening effect of speculative behavior;the third step is to divide the sample according to whether it is affected by the fluctuation of RMB,and explore the impact of RMB exchange rate regional linkage on corporate investment behavior.This paper believes that China's investment motives in the countries along the "Belt and Road"are affected by speculative motives.The three main factors affecting the speculative expectations of Chinese corporate investors are as follows:The host country's exchange rate control policy and the institutional speculation generated by the host country's openness level;the second 1s the dynamic speculation caused by the fluctuation of the host country's exchange rate,the international environment's investment in the host country,and the market speculation caused by factors such as the development of the host country and the market environment.Through the random effects model,the analysis framework of the enterprise's trade-offs between investment motives and exchange rate speculation 1s constructed,and its impact mechanism is explained.Based on the data of major investment in developing countries along the“Belt and Road,'between 2006 and 2016,this paper uses the measurement method to verify the speculative behavior from the perspective of the host country's exchange rate,and seeks motives and techniques from the perspective of exchange rate motives and resources.The relationship between seeking motivation and market seeking motivation is discussed.On this basis,the regional differences of Chinese investors' investment behavior are discussed to prove the influence of speculative behavior in the perspective of developing countries' exchange rates along the "Belt and Road".The empirical results fully verify that China's investment behavior in the countries along the "Belt and Road" includes speculative motives.Considering that China's foreign investment needs to convert the currency twice,the exchange rate conversion efficiency is low.Therefore,in countries with weak influence of the RMB,the speculative motives under the perspective of exchange rate are more intense.It shows that when enterprises intend to invest in the countries along the "Belt and Road",they not only pay attention to the resources and market conditions of the host country,but also pay attention to the short-term risk investment status of the host country,which weakens the resource seeking motivation and market seeking motives of the enterprise to a certain extent.Finally,based on theoretical and empirical analysis,this paper proposes corresponding countermeasures and suggestions to guide China's healthy development of investment in countries along the "Belt and Road".