Research On The Relevant Issues Of Renminbi As Anchor Currency In ASEAN Region

Since the global financial crisis in 2008,many emerging countries have found that the implementation of the dollar-pegged exchange rate regime has not only gradually deprived them of the autonomy of domestic monetary policy implementation,but also adversely affected their domestic policies through the network externalities of the US dollar.The drawback of the US dollar as the anchor currency of various countries has gradually emerged.However,with the increase of China's economic and trade exchanges,the RMB has gradually moved to the world.At present,the RMB has achieved cross-border trade settlement.At the same time,in order to better promote cross-border trade settlement of the RMB,the Central Bank of China has signed currency swap agreements with more than 30 countries or regions.Since July 2005,China has carried out exchange rate reform,announcing that the RMB will float by management with reference to a basket of currencies,completely abandoning the exchange rate arrangement of the deposit dollar,and promoting the transfer of the RMB exchange rate to the market direction.In August 2015,China further implemented exchange rate reform,stipulating that when market makers quote prices,they should "refer to the closing exchange rate of the inter-bank foreign exchange market of the previous day".Since then,the marketization of RMB exchange rate has been gradually promoted.In October 2016,the RMB joined the SDR,and the RMB formally became the international reserve currency and stepped onto the international stage.With the growing strength of China's political and economic strength,China has achieved some success in promoting the regionalization and internationalization of RMB.In this context,the influence of RMB in the international community has gradually deepened,and what kind of impact RMB has had in the exchange rate system of other economies.At present,most studies focus on the exchange rate linkage between currencies,influencing factors and so on.Exploring the currency status of RMB in Southeast Asia(including ASEAN)from the aspects of anchor currency selection is conducive to a correct understanding of the position of RMB in Southeast Asia,and at the same time provides effective theoretical support and empirical basis for the policy recommendations of RMB regionalization.This paper combines theoretical and practical basis,uses empirical analysis,from the perspective of anchor currency,to analyze the size of currency anchor effect ofRMB in ASEAN region.Specifically,firstly,this paper introduces the theoretical basis of RMB becoming anchor currency in ASEAN region from the aspects of currency competition theory,optimal currency area theory and anchor currency theory.Then,from the realistic level,the feasibility of RMB becoming anchor currency in ASEAN region is analyzed and analyzed.Then,the restrictive factors of RMB becoming anchor currency in ASEAN region are discussed.From the perspective of history,this paper describes the change of RMB's monetary status in ASEAN from three aspects: China-ASEAN political exchanges,RMB cross-border trade settlement and exchange of local currencies between the two sides.Finally,in the part of empirical analysis,the author uses the cross-currency model proposed by Frankel and Wei(1994)to empirically analyze the role of RMB in ASEAN region,demonstrates whether the anchor currency weight of RMB in the basket of currencies of ASEAN economies has replaced the anchor position of US dollar in ASEAN region.Finally,the paper gives the promotion.Relevant Policy Suggestions on Renminbi as the Anchor Currency of ASEAN Region.