The Impact Study Of Overseas Market Risks On The Internationalization Process Of Enterprises

International trade theory has gone through four stages of development so far.From classical trade theory and neoclassical trade theory,which are based on the perfect competitive market and focus on the analysis of trade activities between industries,to new trade theory,which tries to explain the new trend of Global trade from the perspective of technological progress,incomplete competition and economies of scale,and the recent new trade theory which analyses the choice of internationalization path and production choice of globalized organization from the micro-perspective.The new trade theory is based on micro-enterprises to explore trade activities.The differences in productivity of enterprises lead to different choices for enterprises to enter the international market.High-productivity companies will enter the international market through foreign direct investment,and followed by enterprises will participate in international competition through export,while those with lower productivity are unable to go abroad or even be forced to withdraw from the market.Although the existing heterogeneous enterprise trade and investment models have analyzed the choice of trade,investment and corresponding organizational structure from different levels and perspectives,and successfully explained some empirical facts,more diversified and perfect heterogeneous enterprise trade and investment models are still needed to deeply analyze the market choice behavior of enterprises.At the same time,the new trade theory is based on the static perspective to examine the path choice of enterprise internationalization,while enterprise participation in international competition is a dynamic process.There are two ways to participate in international competition,one is export,the other is foreign direct investment.Because of the difference in cost composition between the two modes,enterprises choose the two modes sequentially when they enter the international market.Through the data sets compiled from customs database,industrial enterprise database and directory of foreign direct investment,it is found that the vast majority of Chinese enterprises have exported before making foreign direct investment.By reviewing the existing literature,it is found that the risk of overseas market is the key factor to promote enterprises to adopt a gradual internationalization strategy.Based on the existing theory,this paper constructs a two-cycle model for the internationalization choice of heterogeneous enterprises,and demonstrates the dynamic internationalization path of enterprises under uncertain risk conditions: firstly,enterprises will try to make profits in the destination market through export.If the profit level is lower than the export cost,the enterprise will withdraw from the market;on the contrary,the company will continue to export.If the profit level is high enough,the company will start direct foreign investment.Empirical research on new data with export and foreign direct investment information at the enterprise-year-destination country level from 2005 to 2013 shows that the export experience of enterprises in foreign markets has a positive impact on the probability of starting to invest in the market.The role of export experience depends largely on the uncertainty of foreign market risk.When enterprises invest in destinations with greater market risk,it is more important to gain export experience.