Study On The Influencing Factors And Measurement Of RMB Internationalization Under The New Normal Economy

In recent years,China's comprehensive strength has developed rapidly,both hard power and soft power have been developed to a certain extent.In the economic aspect,China's performance is particularly prominent.The total GDP is huge and foreign trade develops rapidly,which prompts China to seek international status in the world.Whether a country's currency has international influence is an important factor to measure the comprehensive strength of the country.With the outbreak of the global economic crisis in 2008,a series of problems have emerged in the international monetary system dominated by the US dollar.Countries have seized this opportunity to promote the internationalization of their own currencies.China is also actively promoting the internationalization of RMB.In April 2009,the pilot business of RMB cross-border trade settlement marked the beginning of the internationalization of RMB.In 2014,the Central Economic Working Conference proposed to steadily promote the internationalization of RMB.In October 2016,RMB formally joined the SDR currency basket.Although RMB internationalization has made some progress in some aspects,the degree of RMB internationalization is still low and the development of the three functions is not perfect.Renminbi internationalization is not achieved overnight.Especially under the background of the new normal economy,we should calculate the internationalization degree of Renminbi according to the specific situation of our country and analyze the role of each influencing factor in detail,so as to seek a suitable way for the internationalization of Renminbi in China.The research content of this paper is to analyze the influencing factors of RMB internationalization and construct an index system of RMB internationalization measurement,to measure the degree of RMB internationalization and to put forward suggestions to promote the development of RMB internationalization.The framework of this paper is as follows: The introduction part briefly introduces the research background and significance of the article,and combs the relevant literature at home and abroad.The second part,starting with the main international monetary and its internationalization process,introduces the relevant theories of currency internationalization,and summarizes the main factors affecting currency internationalization in the analysis of historical experience and related theories.The third part first points out the drawbacks of the current international monetary system and the historical opportunities of RMB internationalization from the domestic and international environment.Under the background of the new normal economy,we can not ignore the drawbacks of RMB internationalization while seeing its benefits.Then we analyze the development status of the three major functions of RMB internationalization in detail.The function of trading media has become the breakthrough point for RMB internationalization.The function of accounting unit is gradually brought into play,but the development of value reserve function is relatively low.The fourth part,using statistical data and charts to analyze the factors affecting RMB internationalization,generally speaking,in recent years,the rapid improvement of China's economic strength,the huge volume of foreign trade,the stable value of RMB,the optimistic development of financial market,the level of domestic military science and technology and the attitude of national policy are all conducive to the internationalization of RMB.The fifth part,according to the influencing factors reflecting the three functions of international currency,constructs the index system of RMB internationalization measurement,uses factor analysis to weigh the variance contribution of each factor to the overall trend,and calculates the index of RMB internationalization degree from 1994 to 2017.It can be seen that the index of RMB internationalization degree has shown an upward trend in recent years and fluctuates in different years,with total economic volume,trade level and financial market.Economic aggregate,trade level,financial market,currency stability and other factors have a significant impact on the degree index.The exponential smoothing method is used to analyze and forecast the degree of RMB internationalization under the new normal.It can be seen that the internationalization of RMB tends to be stable at first,and then continues to increase.The sixth part summarizes and points out that steadily promoting RMB internationalization should promote healthy economic development,actively carry out cross-border trade,deepen the reform of financial markets,maintain the stability of RMB currency value and give full play to the reserve function of RMB.