The Effect Of Contribution Base On Pension Fund Income

At present,along with our country aging degree of deepening,China's pension fund spending pressure has been revealed,however,our country's pension fund income did not appear as expected faster growth,starting in 2013,some provinces do not cover the current charge on the phenomenon,and do not cover the current revenue so far are the number of the provinces has up to seven,and the income gap widening,the income gap in heilongjiang province has reached 19.6 billion yuan.At the same time,with the aggravation of the aging degree of the population,the dependency ratio within the basic endowment insurance system and the dependency ratio of the total population have been declining year after year,and the sustainability of the basic endowlent insurance system has been severely challenged.Therefore,it is of great significance to find out the reasons why the growth rate of China's basic endowment insurance income declines year by year.Under the life cycle theory,the family saves during the working period to maintain the consumption level after retirement.In order to maximize the family welfare,the family will save according to the consumption smoothness during the working period and the retirement period.Through the analysis of typical facts,this paper finds that in the design of China's basic endowment insurance system,the social average wage directly linked to the endowment insurance contribution base increases year by year,which directly increases the lower limit of the pension contribution base.The increase in the contribution base has increased the contribution burden of families,especially low-income families.Under the heavier burden of payment,in order to maintain the current reasonable level of consumption,families especially low-income families will reduce the private savings,and with the rising of expends base,private savings will continue to be squeezed out,until the private savings run out,in order to maintain the current consumption,ginseng protect family can't afford not to take "pay less,short pay endowment insurance premiums,even out of ginseng,caused the adverse incentives and institutional extrusion,thus inhibiting the ascension of pension income.This paper,by using 2004-2014,the national 31 provinces(municipalities directly under the central government,autonomous regions)of provincial panel data,using the base as explanatory variables,through the establishment of fixed effects tool variable regression model,analysis the base of the growth influence on pension income,in addition,for the sake of meet the requirements of exogenous and correlation of,choose "average wages in government institutions" as the base of instrumental variable,regression results,this paper explained variable estimates of the coefficient of the symbol is negative showed that expends base will lead to the growth of pension fund income decreases,expends base each grew by 1%,Pension fund revenue fell 7.8 percent.Considering the low level of endowment insurance pooling in different provinces and the large population mobility in China,this paper further explores the heterogeneity of population mobility in different provinces on the impact of contribution base on pension income.This article 31 provinces are divided into population inflows and outflows of two groups of population,respectively on two groups of data of fixed effects tool variable regression,introducing population inflows and social interaction of flat salary,through the interaction of symbols and significance of the specific analysis of the impact,the regression results found that:the interaction coefficient of symbol is positive,instructions for the population flows into the region,expends base for pension income growth inhibition is reduce.The following conclusions are drawn in this paper:the design of China's basic endowlent insurance system is unreasonable,and the payment base increases year after year with the increase of social wage.As expends base increased year by year,can aggravate the burden of family pension,in order to maintain reasonable consumption level of the family,family,especially low-income families will reduce the private savings,when private savings to reduce to zero,the family will take "pay less,short pay,no pay" endowment insurance way to maintain the current level of consumption,caused the institutional extrusion,inhibits the growth of the pension fund income.At the same time,for provinces with population inflow,the negative impact of the increase of contribution base on pension fund income is mitigatedIn this paper,the main innovation place mainly has two points,first of all,the past literature are based on the endowment insurance policy rates to explore the incentive mechanism of endowment insurance system,this paper thinks the nominal rate basically stable in China and can,t measure pay cost burden more scientifically,the old-age insurance system is adopted,another important part of the base as a measure of variable pay cost burden;Second,considering the low level of pooling in China,the national pooling has not been realized and the large population mobility in China,this paper studies whether the population mobility will aggravate or inhibit the impact of contribution base on pension income.The deficiency of this paper is that the pooling level of China's basic endowment insurance system is at a low level,mainly at the county level.In the empirical analysis part,the provincial data model is adopted for analysis,which has some limitations.